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Tropical cyclone objective intensity determination method based on multi-factor generalized linear model

A generalized linear model and tropical cyclone technology, applied to biological neural network models, climate sustainability, instruments, etc., to achieve the effect of improving accuracy and enhancing the accuracy of fixed intensity

Active Publication Date: 2019-07-26
NAT UNIV OF DEFENSE TECH
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Problems solved by technology

However, the previous DAV-T based on single-factor intensity determination still has room for improvement in the accuracy of tropical cyclone intensity determination

Method used

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Embodiment Construction

[0037] In order to better understand the technical content of the present invention, specific embodiments are given together with the attached drawings for description as follows.

[0038] According to the accompanying drawings, a method for objectively determining the intensity of tropical cyclones based on a multi-factor generalized linear model proposed by the present invention further improves the accuracy of objectively determining the intensity of tropical cyclones and provides technical support for monitoring and early warning of tropical cyclones.

[0039] The invention is realized based on the DAV-T method and the generalized linear model.

[0040] combine figure 1 As shown in the process, the method for objectively determining the intensity of tropical cyclones based on the multi-factor generalized linear model includes:

[0041] Step 1. Extract the characteristic factors of the tropical cyclone at each moment, including:

[0042] (1) MMV: minimum deviation varian...

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Abstract

The invention provides a tropical cyclone objective intensity determination method based on a multi-factor generalized linear model, and the method comprises the steps: 1, extracting characteristic factors of tropical cyclones at each moment, including MMV, RD,S-20,TBBstd, Lat or Lon intensity determination factors; and 2, establishing a relationship between the characteristic factor and the maximum surface wind speed of the tropical cyclone by using a generalized linear model. According to the method, the objective intensity determination precision of the tropical cyclone can be further improved, and technical support is provided for monitoring and early warning of the tropical cyclone.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of tropical cyclone intensity monitoring and early warning, in particular to a method for objectively determining the intensity of tropical cyclones based on a multi-factor generalized linear model. Background technique [0002] Tropical cyclones are strong cyclonic circulations occurring on low-latitude oceans, often accompanied by disastrous weather such as strong winds, heavy rains, and storm surges, which seriously threaten human life and property safety. Statistics from the World Meteorological Organization show that in recent years, tropical cyclones have become the most costly natural disasters to human society. [0003] In the past decade, the ability to forecast the track of tropical cyclones has been significantly improved. However, judging from the forecast results of tropical cyclone intensity in the same period, it has remained stagnant in the past decade, and even the forecast accuracy error ha...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50G06N3/04
CPCG06F30/20G06N3/048Y02A90/10
Inventor 钟玮袁猛
Owner NAT UNIV OF DEFENSE TECH
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