A screening method for initial members of tropical cyclone ensemble forecasting against physical process disturbances

Abstract

The invention provides a method for screening initial members of a tropical cyclone ensemble forecast aiming at physical process disturbance, comprising the following steps: 1) selecting a regional numerical weather prediction mode, and selecting a boundary layer parameterization scheme and a cumulus convection parameterization scheme from the regional numerical weather prediction mode to participate in the design; 2) selecting a typhoon case; 3) pefroming 120-hour numerical simulation for selected typhoon cases; 4) calculating the similarity deviation between the initial members; 5) analyzingand screening similarity of ensemble members; 6) calculating average absolute error. That invention eliminates the similar members step by step by calculating the similarity deviation index, obtainsreasonable ensemble members on the basis of synthetically evaluating and forecasting average error, and solves the problem that the subjectivity is too strong in the selection process of the ensemblemembers based on physical disturbance at present.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of numerical weather prediction, and in particular relates to a method for screening initial members of tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts for physical process disturbances. Background technique [0002] Since the 1960s, numerical weather prediction has become one of the important means of typhoon forecasting and early warning, and has also made significant progress. The error of numerical prediction mainly comes from the uncertainty in the process of model prediction. The source of this uncertainty is divided into initial value error and model error, observation error in initial value, instrument error and the chaotic characteristics of the atmosphere, making the initial field Inevitably there are uncertainties, and the initial small disturbance will lead to huge errors in the forecast results as the model integration time increases. The second is the error of the model itself. Since the model is a discre...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for screening the initial members of the tropical cyclone ensemble forecast for physical process disturbances, in order to solve the problem that the current model physical process disturbance members are difficult to objectively determine

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