The invention relates to the technical field of disaster prevention and reduction of a power
system, and discloses an
icing risk early warning method based on multi-model fusion and residual
time sequence characteristic analysis, which comprises the following steps: collecting meteorological data of a line area in real time, removing abnormal values through secondary judgment of a Pauta criterion and a trend, and standardizing; adopting a TEROL
algorithm to screen high-weight key features; running SWD-BP, MUL-GRNN and ELM models in parallel, constructing a dynamic weight by combining DSI, an independence weight method and an
entropy weight method, and calculating a final meteorological predicted value; generating a
prediction residual signal, extracting
time domain features such as a mean value and a
peak value, and constructing a residual
feature matrix through a sliding window; and inputting an LSTM model to process a
time sequence dependency relationship, and judging an
icing risk level. According to the method, meteorological prediction is optimized through multi-model dynamic fusion, and deviation is analyzed and corrected in combination with residual
time sequence characteristics, so that the problem of weak generalization ability of a
single model is effectively solved, and the accuracy of
icing risk early warning is obviously improved.