Tropical cyclone potential impact evaluation method based on comprehensive intensity index

Abstract

The invention provides a tropical cyclone potential impact evaluation method based on a comprehensive intensity index. The method comprises the following steps: (1) dividing plane space into latitude-longitude grids of which the sizes are 2 degrees * 2 degrees, and carrying out statistics of the inter-decade path orientation time level of a tropical cyclone path passing each grid according to an inter-decade scale; (2) calculating the energy dissipation exponential value of a tropical cyclone in each time level in each grid, and accumulating the energy dissipation exponential values of the tropical cyclone in all time levels in the grid to obtain the grid inter-decade energy dissipation exponential value of the grid, wherein the grid inter-decade energy dissipation exponential value serves as an index reflecting the comprehensive intensity of the tropical cyclone; (3) acquiring a grid inter-decade path comparison orientation time level corresponding to each level of tropical cyclones at each magnitude of grid inter-decade energy dissipation exponential values according to the mean wind speed of all levels of tropical cyclones; and (4) building potential impact levels of the tropical cyclones, and evaluating potential impacts of the tropical cyclones on different regions. The tropical cyclone potential impact evaluation method can effectively evaluate the potential impacts of the tropical cyclones, and has important values in defending against tropical cyclone disasters and improving tropical cyclone disaster forecasting level.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for evaluating tropical cyclones in the field of meteorology, and more specifically, relates to a method for evaluating the potential impact of tropical cyclones based on a comprehensive intensity index. Background technique [0002] Tropical cyclones (Tropical cyclones, TCs) are a kind of disastrous weather system with strong destructive force. The disasters such as strong wind, heavy rain and storm surge caused by it will pose a huge threat to human life and national property. In the past decade, the impact of tropical cyclones on East Asia has shown an increasing trend. China is located on the west coast of the Pacific Ocean and has a long coastline. It is one of the countries most severely affected by tropical cyclones in the world. [0003] The formation and development of tropical cyclones are affected by various external factors such as tropical sea surface temperature, and their intensity characteristics, degr...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, since then, in the relevant studies that have adopted the energy dissipation index as the standard for quantifying the intensity of tropical cyclones, they only analyze or estimate the trend of intensity changes from the perspective of the entire life cycle of tropical cyclones, without considering all the tropical cyclones that occurred in a specific period of time. Intensity characteristics reflected in different regions in order to analyze the potential impact of tropical cyclones on different regions during this period

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