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A correction method and system for watershed runoff forecast

A correction method and runoff technology, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as errors in watershed runoff forecasting models, and achieve the effects of improving correction accuracy, good correction accuracy, and high practical value

Active Publication Date: 2018-07-24
STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a watershed runoff forecast correction method and its system to solve the technical problem that existing watershed runoff forecast models have errors in extreme cases

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  • A correction method and system for watershed runoff forecast

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Embodiment Construction

[0032] The embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings, but the present invention can be implemented in many different ways defined and covered by the claims.

[0033] see figure 1 , a watershed runoff forecast correction method, comprising the following steps:

[0034] S1: Obtain real-time watershed runoff forecast data, corresponding precipitation data and measured runoff data, and extract historical data from them.

[0035] S2: Calculate the correlation coefficient vector V between each set of historical runoff process data and other sets of historical runoff process data r :

[0036] V r =[R p , R f , R m ]

[0037] where R p is the correlation coefficient of precipitation data, R f is the correlation coefficient of runoff forecast data, R m is the correlation coefficient of measured runoff data.

[0038] S3: Divide the historical runoff process data into two types according to the size of th...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a river basin runoff forecast correction method and system. The method comprises the steps of obtaining real-time river basin runoff forecast data, corresponding rainfall data and runoff measured data, extracting historical data, calculating a correlation coefficient vector Vr of each set of historic runoff process data and other sets of historic runoff process data, dividing the historic runoff process data into two categories according to vectors, building a nonlinear forecast model for each category of the runoff process data, performing correlation analysis on the real-time river basin runoff forecast data, the corresponding rainfall data and the historic runoff process data, selecting the forecast model with the maximum coefficient as a correction model, adopting the real-time river basin runoff forecast data and the corresponding rainfall data as the input of the selected correction model, and outputting the corrected river basin runoff forecast data calculated by the selected correction model. According to the river basin runoff forecast correction method and system, the runoff forecast correction precision is improved, and the important decision information guidance is provided for reservoir optimal dispatching.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of hydrological forecasting, in particular to a watershed runoff forecasting correction method and system thereof. Background technique [0002] Accurate reservoir runoff forecast results are the data basis for reservoir flood control and optimal dispatch of power generation, and play an important role in guiding the reservoir to fully exert its flood control and power generation benefits. [0003] Due to the partial simplification of the description of the hydrological runoff process in the existing watershed runoff forecasting model, there are often errors in the runoff forecast results, especially for runoff forecasts under extreme rainstorm conditions. Optimal scheduling plan. Commonly used correction methods based on error regression have high correction accuracy for conventional flow processes, but it is difficult to achieve good correction accuracy for forecast errors under extreme conditions. [00...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCG16Z99/00
Inventor 陆佳政郭俊杨莉徐勋建张杰冯涛邸悦伦李丽刘行
Owner STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER
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