Wind power output time series modeling method and system

Abstract

The invention provides a wind power output time series modeling method and system. The method comprises the steps of obtaining historical wind power output data of a target wind power plant and an adjacent wind power plant; according to the historical wind power output data, calculating correlation coefficients of the target wind power plant and the adjacent wind power plant to obtain a correlation coefficient set; and according to the correlation coefficient set, generating a simulated wind power output time series. According to the technical scheme provided by the method and the system, a sample wind power plant required for modeling is determined by calculating the correlation coefficients of the target wind power plant and the adjacent wind power plant; and the time series and fluctuation of wind power output are considered, and the spatial correlation of the wind power output is reflected, so that the wind power prediction precision is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power systems, and in particular relates to a wind power output time series modeling method and system. Background technique [0002] At present, the depletion of energy resources and the increasingly serious environmental pollution have become the focus of close attention of the government and the public. Conserving energy, protecting the environment, and promoting the benign interaction and coordination between the economy and society are urgent needs to promote sustainable social development. In this situation, my country's wind power and other new energy power generation is developing rapidly. At present, my country's new energy installed capacity ranks first in the world. However, affected by factors such as my country's power supply structure, resource distribution, and power grid structure, the problem of new energy consumption has become increasingly prominent year by year. [0003] In the analysis of new...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The current time series modeling methods of wind power output mostly use stochastic modeling methods based on historical time series, which can only consider the timing and volatility of wind power output in the region, but cannot reflect the spatial correlation of wind power output. sex

This method solves the problem of new energy time series for analysis and calculation, but for the relevant wind power generation time series required for multi-regional and multi-provincial calculations in the province, further research and breakthroughs are needed

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