Method for determining acceptable range and reachability risk of lake water quality management target

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for determining an acceptable range and a reachability risk of a lake water quality management target. The method comprises the following steps of (1) collecting observation values of n groups of environment variables of a lake needed to be subjected to water quality management target determination; (2) substituting the processed observation values into a Markov-Extremal model for calculation to obtain model parameters, and determining a model result; (3) according to a lake water body usage target, determining the management target of the environment variablesin the lake; (4) determining the acceptable target range of lake water quality management in combination with the model result and the lake water body usage target; and (5) determining a recurrence period of the management target, and according to the recurrence period of the management target, determining the reachability risk of the management target. The method for determining the acceptable range and the reachability risk of the lake water quality management target based on the Markov-Extremal model is easy to popularize and apply in determination of management targets and target ranges of various lake water bodies without loss of an observation data quantity.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for determining the acceptable range of a lake water quality management target and its accessibility risk, and belongs to the field of lake management. Background technique [0002] Affected by industrial and agricultural pollution emissions, the water quality of most lakes in my country is deteriorating, and lake management is becoming increasingly important. In lake management, determining the goal of lake water quality management is one of the necessary steps. At present, there have been many methods to determine lake water quality management goals; but most methods only set a single value for water quality management goals without considering its acceptable range, which leads to rigid lake water quality management. At the same time, when formulating management goals, it rarely considers whether the goals can be achieved, which brings the risk of goal accessibility to water quality management. Summary of the invention ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At present, there are many methods to determine lake water quality management objectives; however, most methods only set a single value for water quality management objectives, without considering its acceptable range, resulting in rigid lake water quality management

At the same time, when formulating management objectives, the issue of whether the objectives can be achieved is rarely considered, which brings the risk of target attainability to water quality management.

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