Prediction method and early warning system for traffic and tourism in scenic spots

Abstract

The invention provides a scenic spot traffic and tourism prediction method and a scenic spot traffic and tourism early warning system. The method includes the following steps that: a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model is adopted, and correlations between scenic spots in a target area are analyzed; at least one of the scenic spots is selected as a reference scenic spot, the tourismdata and traffic flow data of the reference scenic spot are utilized to construct the scenic spot traffic and tourism index of the reference scenic spot; and the correlations between the scenic spotsand the scenic spot traffic and tourism index predicted result of the reference scenic spot are adopted to predict the traffic and tourism indexes of the other scenic spots in the scenic spots. According to the method and system of the invention, tourism and traffic are combined; correlations and pulse response relationships between scenic spots and traffic are revealed on the basis of data; traffic tourism indexes are constructed and predicted; and the traffic volume change of the scenic spots can be monitored; the traffic and tourism information of the scenic spots can be provided for tourists; and the tourism quality of the tourists can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of transportation, in particular to a method for predicting traffic and tourism in a scenic spot and an early warning system. Background technique [0002] Tourism is an important strategic pillar industry of the national economy, and transportation is the basic support and prerequisite for the development of tourism. However, due to holidays, when tourists travel between multiple scenic spots when traveling in the same area, there will be traffic jams caused by sudden changes in traffic flow in each scenic spot and tourist peak passenger flow in individual scenic spots. At the same time, because tourists do not understand the real-time status of the traffic and tourist facilities in the scenic spot, the traffic flow and tourist facilities exceed the carrying capacity, which seriously affects the tourist quality of tourists. Contents of the invention [0003] The present invention provides a scenic spot traffic and...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, due to holidays, when tourists travel between multiple scenic spots when traveling in the same area, there will be sudden changes in traffic flow in each scenic spot, causing traffic jams and peak tourist flow in individual scenic spots.

At the same time, because tourists do not understand the real-time status of the traffic and tourist facilities in the scenic spot, the traffic flow and tourist facilities exceed the carrying capacity, which seriously affects the tourist quality of tourists.

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