Improved time series electricity sales prediction method and system based on economic business method

A technology of time series and forecasting methods, applied in the field of power systems, can solve problems such as not combining the development trend of economic indicators, and achieve the effect of promoting economic health

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-07-12
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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  • Abstract
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  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

The existing electricity sales forecast generally predicts future electricity sales based on the historical data of electricity sales itself, but does not combine the development trend of local economic indicators to correct the forecast results of electricity sales

Method used

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  • Improved time series electricity sales prediction method and system based on economic business method
  • Improved time series electricity sales prediction method and system based on economic business method
  • Improved time series electricity sales prediction method and system based on economic business method

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Embodiment Construction

[0047] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments It is a part of embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

[0048] Such as figure 1 As shown, the improved time series electricity sales forecasting method based on the economic prosperity method provided by the present invention includes the following contents:

[0049] 1. Obtain the historical monthly electricity sales data in a certain area, and calculate the increase rate of the total electricity...

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Abstract

The invention relates to an improved time sequence electricity sale quantity prediction method and system based on an economic business method. The prediction method comprises the following steps: obtaining historical monthly electricity selling quantity data of a certain area, predicting monthly electricity selling quantity data of the future n months, and calculating the rising amplitude of thetotal electricity selling quantity value of the future n months relative to the total electricity selling quantity value of the previous n months; obtaining the historical monthly primary economic index data of a certain region to obtain economic indexes, and calculating the rising amplitude of each economic index in the total value of n months in the future relative to the total value of n monthsin the last year; and comparing the power sales rise amplitude with the economic index rise amplitude, and correcting the predicted power sales data. According to the invention, the capacity increaseand reconstruction of a power grid in a future area can be planned in advance, thereby well promoting the healthy, coordinated and rapid development of local economy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an improved time-series electricity sales forecast method and system based on the economic boom method, and relates to the technical field of electric power systems. Background technique [0002] Electricity sales forecast is based on the known electricity demand, considering political, economic, climate and other related factors, exploring the internal relationship and development and change law between electricity consumption and the main influencing factors, and making a prediction for future electricity demand. predict. Electricity sales forecast is an indispensable part of power system operation, control and planning, and the results of electricity sales forecast have become the necessary basis for economic dispatch and the promotion of electricity marketization. One of the characteristics of electric energy is that it cannot be stored in large quantities, that is, the production, transmission, distribution, and consumpti...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q30/02G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q30/0202G06Q50/06Y04S50/14
Inventor 杨智龙刘亚民李学军徐庆华刘航管宇卢思远张自力史晓坤
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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