Short-term electricity price prediction method and system considering power supply and demand relationship

Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term electricity price prediction method and system considering an electric power supply and demand relationship, and the method comprises the following steps: calculating an electricity price prediction basic value at a specified moment according to the historical clearing price data of a specified electric power market transaction variety for the same specified transaction variety; calculating a price adjustment interval of the specified moment based on the actual demand fluctuation of the specified moment; and combining the electricity price prediction basicvalue at the specified moment with the price adjustment interval to obtain an electricity price prediction interval at the specified moment. Due to the particularity of power consumption, electricityprice fluctuation caused by power demand fluctuation is considered, so that an electricity price prediction value is corrected, and the electricity price prediction precision is improved. Along with the increase of the data samples, the correlation between the interval division method and the matching is increased, so that the prediction precision is further improved. Excessive samples are not needed so that the invention s still suitable under the condition of insufficient collected data sources, and high prediction precision is guaranteed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power grid short-term electricity price prediction, and relates to a short-term electricity price prediction method and system considering the relationship between power supply and demand. Background technique [0002] With the continuous development of electricity market reform, the position of electricity price in the electricity market has become more and more prominent, and electricity price forecasting is an important research direction after the electricity reform. Electricity price is affected by important factors such as power market supply and demand, power cost, power market system structure, social and economic situation, and fluctuates around the value of power. Therefore, it can be said to be an important indicator of power market transactions and an important economic signal in the power market. Accurate electricity price forecasting can enable market participants to make correct strategic d...

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Problems solved by technology

However, due to the particularity of power consumption, the forecast of electricity price should take into account many factors such as power supply and demand, industry power consumption characteristics, etc. With the increase in the number of power consumers, the greater the difference in power consumption characteristics, the construction of a general neural network model It is more difficult; in addition, the neural network has the problem of over-learning and falling into local optimum, and its accuracy for electricity price prediction needs to be improved

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