EPC project evaluation method and system based on Bayesian network

Abstract

The invention discloses an EPC project evaluation method and system based on a Bayesian network. The method comprises the following steps: step 1, constructing the Bayesian network based on an EPC project; 2, calculating an edge probability and a conditional probability of each sub-factor in each risk type in the Bayesian network; 3, calculating the risk occurrence probability of each risk type inthe Bayesian network; step 4, calculating economic loss caused by 100% occurrence risk of each risk type in the Bayesian network; step 5, calculating the probability of risk occurrence of the EPC project and economic loss caused by the risk occurrence of each risk type; step 6, performing weighted summation on each risk type, and then calculating economic loss caused by the risk of the EPC project; 7, judging whether the risk occurrence probability of the EPC project or the caused economic loss is greater than bearable loss or not; and step 8, completing evaluation, If not, adding a risk typeto the EPC project, and going to step 2. And the EPC project risk can be evaluated quickly.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of construction engineering project evaluation, and more specifically, to an EPC project evaluation method and system based on Bayesian network. Background technique [0002] EPC (Engineering Procurement Construction) means that the company is entrusted by the owner to carry out the whole process or several stages of the contract for the design, procurement, construction, and trial operation of the construction project according to the contract. Usually the company is responsible for the quality, safety, cost and schedule of the contracted projects under the conditions of the lump sum contract. [0003] In the EPC model, Engineering not only includes specific design work, but may also include the overall planning of the entire construction project content and the planning and specific work of the entire construction project implementation organization and management; Procurement is not the procurement of constructi...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The existing risk assessment method is to use the neural network method for assessment, and it is for compound projects, and there is no risk assessment specifically for EPC projects

In the EPC model, all outsourcing from design, procurement to construction, etc., the owner's participation in it is extremely low, and strict project evaluation is necessary to improve the right to know about the project and avoid losses caused by false reports. The evaluation method of the neural network, the establishment of the model is complex, difficult to operate, time-consuming to calculate, and heavy workload

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