Airport delay prediction method based on sequential network propagation kinetic equation

Abstract

The invention provides an airport delay prediction method based on a sequential network propagation kinetic equation, and relates to the field of airport delay analysis and prediction. The time-varying property and heterogeneity of the aviation network are considered; an aviation time sequence edge weight network is constructed based on airport elements, including an edge connection matrix sequence and a point feature vector sequence, time-space distribution characteristics of delay waves and effects are considered, and a sequential airport delay wave and ATSIS model considering infection lagduration tau, non-uniform infection probability beta and saturation cure rate mu is put forward, and then a differential equation of airport delay probability change is established, a more accurate model and a more accurate method basis are provided for predicting the airport delay probability, a delay probability prediction value solving algorithm process is designed, coupling parameters are determined by using the historical data, the propagation characteristics of delay between airports and the influence of delay waves on airport individuals can be analyzed from the perspective of mesoscopic view, and a reference basis is provided for more effectively predicting and solving airport delay.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of airport delay analysis and prediction, and in particular relates to an airport delay prediction method based on time series network propagation dynamic equations. Background technique [0002] With the improvement of people's living standards and the rapid development of the aviation industry, the demand for air transportation is increasing day by day, and the problem of flight delays is aggravated. Flight delays not only cause inconvenience to passengers' normal travel, but also cause a lot of economic and social losses to airlines, while reducing resource utilization efficiency. A widely accepted theory suggests that delays propagate through the aviation network along flight resources such as aircraft and crews, and that this effect increases as the route network gets busier. Therefore, research on delay propagation behavior is conducive to in-depth identification of the mechanism of delay formation, and provide...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] In view of the above deficiencies, the present invention provides an airport delay prediction method based on time-series network propagation dynamic equations to solve the problem of low efficiency of airport state prediction at a certain point in the future in the prior art

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