Intelligent disaster prevention and reduction method for marine ranching

Abstract

The invention discloses an intelligent disaster prevention and reduction method for a marine ranch. The disaster prevention and reduction method comprises the following steps: firstly, collecting materials, investigating and collecting basic data, and collecting hydro-meteorological data and historical typical storm surge process and dike burst data; selecting an evaluation area according to the collected materials, performing area division on the range of the evaluation area, performing grade division on the risk and the vulnerability of the area, and calculating the area risk by multiplying the risk and the vulnerability; the method comprises the following steps: calculating a multi-disaster concurrent risk through a multi-disaster concurrent risk model, decomposing chain risk assessment into two multi-disaster concurrency by constructing a chain relation of a storm surge event chain, obtaining a connection probability by modifying a conditional probability iteration model, and obtaining a comprehensive risk according to the connection probability. According to the method, static risk assessment and dynamic risk assessment are performed on the marine ranching, so that more accurate risk assessment is provided, and accurate basis and reliable data are provided for disaster prevention and reduction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of coastal disaster risk assessment, in particular to a method for intelligent disaster prevention and mitigation in marine pastures. Background technique [0002] Storm surge disasters not only rank first in my country's marine disasters, but also become one of the most serious natural disasters that threaten my country's coastal economic development. At present, the domestic storm surge disaster comprehensive risk assessment technology system is not yet mature, and the storm surge disaster risk assessment results are not enough to meet the actual application needs. [0003] With the development of catastrophe insurance, especially the catastrophe insurance and catastrophe reinsurance market, the traditional empirical statistical model of storm surge disaster loss cannot meet the needs of the application. The specific performance is that the systematic research on storm surge risk assessment is not comprehe...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, due to the large number of types and quantities of data to be collected, the workload is large, and there are regional differences in vulnerability, it is difficult to make effective comparisons

[0005] The results of storm surge disaster risk assessment are developing in the direction of quantification, regional integration, and management spatialization. The existing storm surge disaster risk assessment cannot quantitatively reflect the specific differences between regions, so it cannot meet the requirements of storm surge disaster risk management.

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