Hydrologic forecasting method of hydrologic model combination of different mechanisms

Abstract

The invention discloses a hydrologic forecasting method of hydrologic model combination of different mechanisms, which comprises the following steps: configuring three or more than three kinds of medium-term hydrologic forecasting models meeting the current basin characteristic according to the basin characteristic, wherein the medium-term hydrologic forecasting models comprise a physical concept model and a system analysis model; calibrating model parameters with highest comprehensive precision aiming at each kind of hydrologic forecasting model rating by adopting hydrologic historical data about 10 years; configuring different forecasting combined schemes at each forecasting time, wherein the combined model is formed by combining the hydrologic physical concept model and the system analysis model, and the combined mode adopts weight coefficient combination and model combination; selecting the historical hydrologic data before the forecasting time for automatically optimizing the combined parameters of the combined model, and carrying out early trial forecasting calculation according to the optimized parameters; and automatically evaluating the trial forecasting calculation result of each combined scheme to acquire the current optimal combined mode to be applied to the current hydrologic forecasting. The invention can well describe the current medium-term inflow characteristic and improve the medium-term forecasting precision.

Description

technical field [0001] The patent of the present invention relates to a hydrological forecasting method, in particular to a hydrological forecasting method combining hydrological models with different mechanisms, which is mainly used in mid-term hydrological forecasting. Background technique [0002] Hydrological forecasting is based on previous and real-time hydrometeorological elements, using the methods of cause analysis and mathematical statistics to scientifically forecast future hydrological elements. The forecast to 15 days is called medium-term forecast, and the forecast to 15 days or more is called long-term forecast. [0003] The short-term hydrological forecast usually takes hours as the time period, and uses the hydrophysical conceptual model to predict the water inflow process in the next dozen or even tens of hours through the calculation of rainfall production and confluence; the long-term hydrological forecast takes ten days, months or years as the time perio...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

This not only takes into account the correlation between medium-term water inflow and physical factors, but also does not ignore its continuous and periodic characteristics, which overcomes the shortcomings of the previous single-mechanism hydrological forecasting model, and at the same time, the characteristics of the combination mode / weight coefficient changing with the runoff characteristics can be better. Describe the medium-term water characteristics and improve the forecast accuracy

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