Discriminant analysis-based high road real-time traffic accident risk forecasting method

A technology for express roads and accident risks, applied in traffic control systems of road vehicles, traffic flow detection, traffic control systems, etc. Risk of road accidents and other issues

Active Publication Date: 2012-02-22
SOUTHEAST UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

However, the disadvantage of these methods is that they need to measure aggregate statistics such as AADT, so it is impossible to determine the "accident black spots" (accident-prone locations) in real time, and it takes a long period of time (1 month to 3 years). Traffic accident and traffic flow historical data
In addition, these aggregate s

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  • Discriminant analysis-based high road real-time traffic accident risk forecasting method
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  • Discriminant analysis-based high road real-time traffic accident risk forecasting method

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Embodiment Construction

[0037] The invention uses the discriminant analysis method for the prediction of expressway traffic accidents, and proposes a method for predicting expressway traffic accidents based on the discriminant analysis method.

[0038] The problem of rapid road traffic accident prediction is actually a binary classification problem. The basic idea of ​​using Fisher's discriminant method is to project known high-dimensional data points onto a one-dimensional space, so that the projection dispersion of the same set of data is as small as possible. , and the projection difference between the accident group and the non-accident group data is as large as possible, and then a linear discriminant function is constructed with the idea of ​​univariate analysis of variance, and its coefficient is determined according to the principle of the largest distance between groups and the smallest distance within a group:

[0039] y=c 1 x 1 +c 2 x 2 +c 3 x 3 +…+c p x p

[0040] There are 2 p-di...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a discriminant analysis-based high road real-time traffic accident risk forecasting method. The method comprises the following steps of: building a high road accident risk discrimination model for a detection area; substituting real-time traffic flow characteristic parameters into the high road accident risk discrimination model; and judging whether the risk of traffic accident exists or not. According to the method, traffic accidents can be forecasted in real time by using the real-time traffic flow characteristic parameters acquired by high road traffic detection equipment, the method has relatively high forecasting precision, and technical defects and shortages in the prior art for analyzing traffic safety by using aggregated statistics are overcome. The methodhas practical engineering application value in the aspects of discrimination of the risk of the high road traffic accidents and forecast of the traffic accidents.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of traffic intelligent management and control, uses a discriminant analysis model, proposes a detection method for the occurrence risk of express road traffic accidents, and predicts express road traffic accidents, which is a real-time traffic accident risk of express roads based on discriminant analysis method of prediction. Background technique [0002] Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid growth of our country's economy, the expressway has experienced a leap-forward rapid development in our country. In 1986, my country's first expressway was completed and opened to traffic. By the end of 2008, the mileage of my country's expressways had exceeded 60,300 kilometers, ranking second in the world. From 2003 to 2007, a total of 105,687 road traffic accidents occurred on national highways, resulting in 30,588 deaths, 77,505 injuries, and direct property losses of 2.62 billion yuan. [0003] Therefore...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G08G1/01G08G1/065G08G1/052
Inventor 徐铖铖刘攀王炜
Owner SOUTHEAST UNIV
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