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A Classified Forecasting Method of Annual Maximum Load Based on Economic and Meteorological Factors

A technology of maximum load and meteorological factors, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve the problems of not considering the influence of annual maximum load, large fluctuations, and low accuracy of annual maximum load prediction, etc., to achieve The effect of overcoming insufficient forecast samples and improving accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2016-05-18
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, there are two main problems in the research on the annual maximum load. One is that the impact of economic and meteorological factors on the annual maximum load is not considered at the same time; the other is that the annual maximum load generally occurs in July and August each year. With the continuous improvement of air-conditioning level, the air-conditioning load accounts for about 30% of the annual maximum load, and it fluctuates greatly with different weather conditions. However, the current research method mainly focuses on the relationship between air-conditioning load and temperature, and does not target different objects of electricity consumption. Classification research on air conditioning load
In view of the above two points, the current research method has low prediction accuracy for the annual maximum load

Method used

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  • A Classified Forecasting Method of Annual Maximum Load Based on Economic and Meteorological Factors
  • A Classified Forecasting Method of Annual Maximum Load Based on Economic and Meteorological Factors
  • A Classified Forecasting Method of Annual Maximum Load Based on Economic and Meteorological Factors

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Embodiment Construction

[0042] The present invention will be further illustrated below by specific examples.

[0043] A classification and prediction method of annual maximum load based on economic and meteorological factors, which decomposes the annual maximum load into annual base load and annual air-conditioning load, and then further decomposes the annual air-conditioning load into annual resident load according to the sensitivity of electricity consumers to temperature. Air-conditioning load and annual non-residential air-conditioning load, construct a classification forecast model:

[0044] S1. Obtain the annual base load data for each year from 2005 to 2011, the electricity consumption data of the whole society in April and the electricity consumption data of the whole society in May, and construct the annual base load forecast regression model:

[0045] The annual base load for each year from 2005 to 2011 can be obtained in one of the following ways:

[0046]S11. Obtain the maximum load in A...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for performing classification prediction on annual maximum load based on economical and meteorological factors. The method comprises the following steps: (1) reading the influence factor of each type of load, reading historical data and constructing a classification prediction model; (2) acquiring each explanatory variable value of a target year; (3) performing classification prediction on each type of load of the target year; (4) calculating the annual maximum load of the target year. According to the method, the annual maximum load is decomposed into annual basic load, annual residential air conditioner load and annual non-residential air conditioner load, so that the influence factors can be considered more deeply; and a classification prediction model is established, the economical and meteorological factors are considered in the prediction model at the same time, the influence of specific temperature is not considered in the meteorological factor, but a climate condition index and high temperature lasting days are introduced into the prediction model, so that the problem that the advancement and accuracy of meteorological prediction do not meet the load prediction requirement is solved, and the prediction accuracy is increased.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grid load forecasting, in particular to a method for classifying and forecasting the annual maximum load based on economic and meteorological factors. Background technique [0002] The annual maximum load forecast is the basis for formulating the power system development plan and the basis for rationally arranging the power supply and power grid construction progress. Accurately predicting the annual maximum load can improve the utilization rate of equipment and avoid waste of resources. [0003] At present, there are two main problems in the research on the annual maximum load. One is that the impact of economic and meteorological factors on the annual maximum load is not considered at the same time; the other is that the annual maximum load generally occurs in July and August each year. With the continuous improvement of air-conditioning level, the air-conditioning load accounts for about 30% of t...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50G06Q50/06
Inventor 陈中元荣秀婷葛斐石雪梅罗庚玉杨孝忠李周杨欣
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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