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Method for estimating power system reliability

A power system and reliability technology, applied in the evaluation field, can solve problems such as the inability to directly apply system reliability evaluation and not considering line faults, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2015-02-04
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +4
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Problems solved by technology

In the power system "Power Systems" (Leite da Silva A M, Fernandez R A G, Singh C. Generating capacity reliability evaluation based on Monte Carlo simulation and cross-entropy methods[J]. Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on, 2010, 25(1) :129-137) published the article "Reliability Assessment of Power Generation Capacity Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and Cross-entropy Method" and proposed a method for power system reliability assessment based on cross-entropy. However, this method does not consider the number of components and the absolute number of faults are much larger than the line faults of the power supply, which makes the method a little simple and cannot be directly applied to the system reliability evaluation including line faults

Method used

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  • Method for estimating power system reliability
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  • Method for estimating power system reliability

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Experimental program
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Embodiment

[0156] Utilize improved sampling method proposed by the present invention (abbreviated as method IV), traditional random sampling method (abbreviated as method I) simple dual variable sampling method (abbreviated as method II) and cross-entropy important sampling method (abbreviated as method III) The reliability evaluation of IEEE-RTS system and modified IEEE-RTS system is carried out, and the calculation results are compared.

[0157] Table 1 shows the LOLP and EDNS calculated by the four sampling methods and the corresponding simulation time under different calculation accuracy (coefficient of variance β).

[0158] Table 1 Calculation results of reliability evaluation of IEEE-RTS system by methods I, II, III, and IV

[0159]

[0160]

[0161] It can be seen from the results in Table 1 that under the same calculation accuracy (variance coefficient β) requirements, the calculation speed of method IV is significantly faster than method I, method II and method III. When ...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for estimating power system reliability. The method comprises the steps of (1) initializing the parameters of the power system, (2) calculating the PL(Xi) of each state of the power system, (3) calculating the W(Xi; u, v<k-1>) of each state of the power system, (4) updating the parameters as shown in the description, (5) determining whether the equation rk=PLtotal is satisfied, (6) calculating the dual sampled system load shedding flag as shown in the description and a shed load amount as shown in the description, (7) calculating W(Xi; u, v*), and calculating LOLP and EDNS as well as coefficients of convergence beta LOLP and beta EDNS, (8) determining whether beta LOLP is smaller than or equal to beta MAX and beta EDNS is smaller than or equal to beta MAX or N2 is greater than or equal to NMAX, and (9) outputting a reliability index. The method for estimating the power system reliability is still efficient and reliable in the reliability estimation of a reliable system having relatively low element failure rate, and therefore, the method is applicable to the reliability estimation of different reliable systems.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an evaluation method, in particular to a method for evaluating the reliability of a power system. Background technique [0002] A power system with a large scale, complex structure, and increasingly high degree of automation brings about overall scale benefits of the system, such as reduction of system reserve capacity, optimal allocation of resources, and diverse and flexible dispatching and operation modes. New challenges in system security and reliability. If the number of equipment is large, the interconnection, operation and control of equipment and equipment are complex, and the network spans a wide area, it is very likely that the expansion of local small faults will lead to systematic large-scale power outages. How to realize fast and accurate reliability assessment of complex power grids has always been a hot research topic in the field of power systems. [0003] There are two main categories of power system reliabil...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00
CPCH02J3/00H02J2203/20
Inventor 雷林绪韩佳兵赵波赵鹏程魏文辉张巍峰张占龙宋颖巍宋卓然
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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