Method for evaluating economic operation year range of transformer substation

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for evaluating the economic operation year range of a transformer substation. According to an original fault rate model based on Weibull distribution or index distribution, only the service age is taken as the variable, various other factors influencing the fault rate of the transformer substation are not considered, and thus the original fault rate model is not suitable for being taken as a model for predicting the fault rate of the transformer substation. According to the method for evaluating the economic operation year range of the transformer substation, the transformer substation is evaluated comprehensively in the aspects of the operating environment and the quality condition, the influence of the two factors on the defect-level fault rate, the invalid-level fault rate and the accident-level fault rate of the transformer substation is analyzed by means of a least square support vector machine under the condition that the different operating times of the transformer substation are considered, the annual maintenance cost range and the fault cost range of the transformer substation under the conditions of the three types of fault rates are obtained by combining the interval analysis method and the whole life cycle cost theory, and finally the operating year range in which the annual average cost of the transformer substation is lowest is taken as the economic operation year range of the transformer substation. The method can provide beneficial guidance for decisions such as power grid planning and transformer substation transformation.

Description

technical field

[0001] The invention belongs to the field of electric power systems, in particular to a method for evaluating substation economic operation period intervals. Background technique

[0002] From a system point of view, the power grid is composed of substations and transmission lines. There are many types of equipment in the substation and the life matching conditions between equipment are complex and diverse. Therefore, before the expected design life is not reached, there may be high failure rates and frequent replacement of equipment. The life assessment of substations with a certain service age can effectively avoid a large number of direct economic losses caused by excessive failure rates or frequent maintenance, and it is even more immeasurable in reducing the consequences of high-risk operation of the power grid and indirect economic losses caused by power outages effect. In the whole life cycle asset management of the power grid, the substation life pr...

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