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An Improved Joint Probabilistic Programming Model System Optimization Method

A technology of joint probability and system optimization, applied in the field of system management

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-05-25
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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Problems solved by technology

In the framework of multi-stage planning, joint probabilistic opportunity constrained programming is introduced to more effectively deal with the uncertainties in the model. Traditional planning methods cannot fully reflect and deal with the large amount of complexity and uncertainty in the management system.

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  • An Improved Joint Probabilistic Programming Model System Optimization Method
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  • An Improved Joint Probabilistic Programming Model System Optimization Method

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Embodiment Construction

[0047] The present invention will be described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0048] In the present invention, the development of joint probability multi-stage optimization model is used in water resource management, aiming to obtain the optimal decision-making scheme for activities such as industry, town and agriculture in the watershed, and to provide a trade-off analysis between system guarantee rate and default risk , which is very valuable for administrative work. Through the comparison and analysis of the simulation results of the expected value model and the chance constrained programming model, the preference coefficient q can be used to describe the decision-making behavior of decision makers with different risk preferences under the chance constrained programming model with different values.

[0049]In the water resource management system, due to the extremely uneven distribution of precipitation, the available water resource...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an improved optimization method for a joint probability programming model system. The improved optimization method comprises the following steps: a, investigating a target system and determining a method, an objective function and system constraints of a model according to the actual conditions; b, collecting needed data, acquiring the input data by investigating yearbooks, government announcements and literatures, and treating original data by virtue of an astatistical method of interpolation and extrapolation to obtain continuous statistical data according with model calculation; c, selecting software, and carrying out programming calculation; and d, according to a calculation result, planning water resource distribution planning on each department, and in addition, arranging the production according to the water resource shortage quantity under different probability levels to reach the maximum benefit.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of system management, and in particular relates to an improved joint probability programming model system optimization method. Background technique [0002] Water resource is a strategic resource that constitutes a country's natural and cultural landscape, and is also a decisive factor in the regional economic development model. It can be said that without water, there will be no life, and there will be no social development and progress. In recent years, with the sustained and rapid development of the national economy, our country is facing a serious water resource crisis. The shortage of water resources, excessive exploitation of groundwater, low level of utilization, serious water pollution and other contradictions have become increasingly prominent, and have become important constraints on my country's social and economic development. In this context, the development of water resources and water environment mana...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/06315G06Q50/06
Inventor 庄晓雯李永平
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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