A Dispatch Display Method Based on Wind Power Probability Forecast

Abstract

The invention discloses a wind electricity probability prediction-based dispatch demonstration method and belongs to the electric power industry regulation technical field. The method includes the following steps: S1, establishing a wind electricity power probability prediction model based on component sparse Bayesian learning, and obtaining prediction information according to the wind electricity power probability prediction model; S2, establishing a model constraining electric power probability dispatch upper limit and considering system risks according to the prediction information, and formulating a power generation plan arrangement strategy according to the result of an electric power system probability dispatch model; S3, performing wind electricity probability prediction according to the power generation plan arrangement strategy, and obtaining and demonstrating the result of wind electricity probability prediction; and S4, realizing wind electricity probability prediction-based dispatch according to the demonstration result. With the method the invention adopted, the errors of short-term wind field output power value prediction values can be decreased, and the accuracy of power generation plans can be improved, and risks that power generation of a power system does not satisfy loads can be eliminated, nearly 10% of wind electricity absorption volume can be increased, and the economic benefits of power grid enterprises can be increased.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of regulation and control of the electric power industry, in particular to a dispatching display method for forecasting based on wind power probability. Background technique [0002] In the existing technology, due to large-scale random wind power grid connection, the traditional power system dominated by deterministic thermal power and hydropower has become a random-deterministic mutual coupling power system. Since the volatility of wind power generation is difficult to predict accurately, it brings many new challenges to the safe operation of the grid, multi-energy generation coordination, reserve capacity optimization, frequency regulation, voltage regulation, and load tracking after it is connected to the grid. When a 10-million-kilowatt wind farm is connected to the grid through a long-distance transmission system, the maximum power fluctuation at the access point may reach 4 million kilowatts. Overloa...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for dispatching and displaying forecasts based on wind power probability, so as to solve the aforementioned problems in the prior art

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