Insulator equivalent salt density prediction model introducing air quality index

A technology of air quality index and prediction model, applied in prediction, data processing application, calculation, etc., to achieve the effect of easy acquisition and enhanced robustness

Active Publication Date: 2015-12-16
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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Problems solved by technology

However, the dynamic influence of the air pollution degree on the equivalent salt density accumulation is ignored, and the existing research shows that there is a positive correlation between the

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  • Insulator equivalent salt density prediction model introducing air quality index
  • Insulator equivalent salt density prediction model introducing air quality index
  • Insulator equivalent salt density prediction model introducing air quality index

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[0072] Examples:

[0073] This case uses the online monitoring data of insulator equivalent salt density from June 4 to June 21, 2012, and from January 4 to January 21, 2013 in the absence of rain at five sites in Wuhan. In order to verify the accuracy and stability of the forecast for the next moment when the air quality index model is introduced, the data of the first 15 days are used to estimate the model parameters, and the equivalent salt density forecast value of the next three days is further calculated, and the classical model As a control group, compare with the measured value.

[0074] figure 2 It is the fitting and prediction curve of the five stations in Wuhan to the measured data (from June 4 to June 21, 2012), where the isolated points are the true values, the solid line is the fitted broken line for parameter estimation of the model of the present invention, and the dashed line Is the predicted value polyline after applying the obtained parameters. In the same way...

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Abstract

The invention provides an insulator equivalent salt density prediction model introducing an air quality index. The insulator equivalent salt density prediction model is characterized in that the following steps are provided: utilizing an integration equation to carry out parameter dynamic processing on a classic prediction model; introducing the air quality index which is used as a driving factor for carrying out dynamic estimation on a pollution accumulation rate [Tau], and stressing the dynamic relation between the pollution accumulation rate and the air pollution degree; and adopting a simulation annealing algorithm to carry out global optimal estimation on model parameters, establishing the high-precision equivalent salt density prediction model, and realizing more precise and stable prediction of the equivalent salt density. Considering the easy availability and the wide coverage of air quality index data, the model provided by the invention is hopeful for substantially reducing the cost of area pollution assessment.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of pollution prediction of power insulators, in particular to an insulator equivalent salt density prediction model introduced with air quality index. Background technique [0002] Insulators are strongly discharged under the action of high-voltage electromagnetic fields, that is, pollution flashover, which affects the safe and stable operation of composite insulators for high-voltage transmission lines. With the development of my country's industry, air pollutants are increasing year by year, which intensifies the accumulation of dirt on the surface of insulators and increases the risk of pollution flashover. The impact of air pollution on composite insulators is reflected in two aspects: the increase of surface pollution and the increase of leakage current and reduction of flashover voltage of insulators due to wet deposition. With the aggravation of pollution, pollution flashover accidents are second only to light...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
Inventor 熊宇阮羚黄俊杰陈孝明马昕李晨张天浩
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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