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Insulator equivalent salt density prediction model introducing air quality index

A technology of air quality index and prediction model, applied in prediction, data processing application, calculation, etc., to achieve the effect of easy acquisition and enhanced robustness

Active Publication Date: 2015-12-16
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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Problems solved by technology

However, the dynamic influence of the air pollution degree on the equivalent salt density accumulation is ignored, and the existing research shows that there is a positive correlation between the pollution accumulation rate and the air pollution, and the air pollution can change greatly in a short period of time, so the classical model The fouling rate τ in should be changed dynamically

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  • Insulator equivalent salt density prediction model introducing air quality index
  • Insulator equivalent salt density prediction model introducing air quality index
  • Insulator equivalent salt density prediction model introducing air quality index

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Embodiment

[0073] This case uses the insulator equivalent salt density online monitoring data from 5 stations in Wuhan area from June 4, 2012 to June 21 and from January 4 to January 21, 2013 under no rainy weather conditions. In order to verify the prediction accuracy and stability of the introduced air quality index model for the next moment, the data of the first 15 days are used to estimate the model parameters, and the equivalent salt density prediction value of the next three days is further calculated, and the classical model Used as a control group for comparison with the measured values.

[0074] figure 2 It is the fitting and prediction curve of five stations in Wuhan to the measured data (June 4th to June 21st, 2012), wherein the isolated point is the true value, the solid line is the fitting polyline of the model of the present invention for parameter estimation, and the dotted line is the predicted value polyline after applying the resulting parameters. Similarly, we used...

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Abstract

The invention provides an insulator equivalent salt density prediction model introducing an air quality index. The insulator equivalent salt density prediction model is characterized in that the following steps are provided: utilizing an integration equation to carry out parameter dynamic processing on a classic prediction model; introducing the air quality index which is used as a driving factor for carrying out dynamic estimation on a pollution accumulation rate [Tau], and stressing the dynamic relation between the pollution accumulation rate and the air pollution degree; and adopting a simulation annealing algorithm to carry out global optimal estimation on model parameters, establishing the high-precision equivalent salt density prediction model, and realizing more precise and stable prediction of the equivalent salt density. Considering the easy availability and the wide coverage of air quality index data, the model provided by the invention is hopeful for substantially reducing the cost of area pollution assessment.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of pollution prediction of power insulators, in particular to an insulator equivalent salt density prediction model introduced with air quality index. Background technique [0002] Insulators are strongly discharged under the action of high-voltage electromagnetic fields, that is, pollution flashover, which affects the safe and stable operation of composite insulators for high-voltage transmission lines. With the development of my country's industry, air pollutants are increasing year by year, which intensifies the accumulation of dirt on the surface of insulators and increases the risk of pollution flashover. The impact of air pollution on composite insulators is reflected in two aspects: the increase of surface pollution and the increase of leakage current and reduction of flashover voltage of insulators due to wet deposition. With the aggravation of pollution, pollution flashover accidents are second only to light...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
Inventor 熊宇阮羚黄俊杰陈孝明马昕李晨张天浩
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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