Network public opinion tendency prediction analysis method

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of Internet information analysis, in particular to a network public opinion tendency prediction analysis method. The method includes the following steps that S101, an index system is determined, network public opinion information is gathered in crawling mode, and the time sequence of needed indexes is acquired through preprocessing; S102, models are established, wherein candidate models are established on the acquired time sequence; S103, an optimal model is selected, wherein the optical model is selected from the established candidate models through comparison; S104, network public opinion tendency prediction analysis is performed, wherein network public opinion tendency prediction analysis is performed based on the selected optimal model. By means of the method, adjustability of lag parameters can flexibly adapt to actual requirements, meanwhile, an MVE is introduced to serve as a model selection judgment criteria, and prediction capacity on fluctuation of special public opinion development tendency is improved. Finally, the models are corrected through new data, and long-term tracing prediction becomes possible.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of Internet information analysis, in particular to a network public opinion trend prediction and analysis method. Background technique [0002] Internet public opinion takes the network as the carrier and events as the core. It is the expression, dissemination and interaction of the majority of netizens' emotions, attitudes, opinions, and views, as well as the collection of subsequent influence. With the development and popularization of the information age, the network has penetrated into all levels of society. As of December 2014, the number of Internet users in my country reached 649 million. Netizens can quickly obtain all kinds of social information from the Internet through various channels, publish their subjective opinions on the Internet, and communicate with others. Through this rapid and extensive information exchange, events can be expanded to form public opinion. In particular, the developmen...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The first two methods can predict the outbreak of hot spots, but they cannot explain the future development trend of specific public opinion

The analysis of the second category only considered the pure time series, and did not consider the driving factors affecting the development of public opinion

At the same time, the judgment standard with the smallest mean square error is not suitable for predicting the development and fluctuation trend of public opinion.

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