Reservoir optimal dispatching method coupling long, medium and short term runoff forecasting information

Abstract

The invention provides a reservoir optimal dispatching method coupling long, medium and short term runoff forecasting information. The method comprises the following steps: 1) analyzing and describing the randomness and the forecasting uncertainty of runoff; 2) constructing a reservoir optimal dispatching model coupling long, medium and short term runoff forecasting information, and determining a target function, a constraint condition and a recurrence equation of the reservoir optimal dispatching model; and 3) solving the constructed reservoir optimal dispatching model in combination with the recurrence equation. The method has the advantages that the runoff forecasting information of long, medium and short forecasting periods is coupled to hydropower dispatching, so that the uncertainty description is more reasonable, the treatment mode of forecasting the runoff is more effective, the use efficiency of uncertain information in reservoir dispatching can be improved, and the power generation benefit of a reservoir and the stability of a system are ensured.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of hydropower dispatching operation, and relates to a reservoir optimization dispatching method coupled with long-term, medium-term and short-term runoff forecast information. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the development of hydrological forecasting technology, forecasting and scheduling are gradually integrated. Reservoir scheduling coupled with comprehensive forecast information such as rainfall and runoff is beneficial to prolong the forecast period and improve the utilization rate of water energy resources. However, the forecast information is affected by many factors such as forecast accuracy and underlying surface, and there is a large uncertainty. Therefore, consider Reservoir dispatching decisions based on forecast information are greatly affected by forecast uncertainty. How to reasonably couple forecast information with reservoir dispatching to reduce the impact of forecast u...

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Problems solved by technology

The SDP model has the characteristic that the more hydrological state variables are used, the better it can describe the random characteristics of the inflow (Tejada-GuibertJ.A., JohnsonS.A., StedingerJ.R.Waterresourcesresearch[J].1995,31(10):2571- 2579), the current research only uses medium-, long-term or short-term and medium-term runoff forecast information, and the long-term, medium-term and short-term runoff forecast information has not been coupled into the stochastic dynamic programming model as hydrological state variables at the same time

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