Truncated versatile distribution model representing renewable energy power probability distribution

Abstract

The invention discloses a truncated versatile distribution model representing renewable energy power probability distribution. Compared with common normal, beta and versatile distribution in current renewable energy power representation, truncated versatile distribution has a bounded truncation characteristic that other distribution does not have. In the aspect of representing the renewable energy power distribution, the model has higher fitting precision on one hand and ensures the boundedness of a distribution function on the other hand, and a CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function) and an inverse function of the distribution function both have closed analytical expressions, so that the model is more suitable for economic dispatching of a power system using renewable energy including wind, power and the like. By comparison with fitting effects of other common distribution on actual wind power distribution of a wind power plant and actual photovoltaic power distribution of a photovoltaic power station, the advantages of a mentioned probability distribution model are verified. A method has high promotion values and good application prospects.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power system operation and control, and relates to a truncated general distribution model representing the probability distribution of renewable energy power. Background technique [0002] In recent years, China's renewable energy has developed rapidly. Among renewable energy sources, wind power and photovoltaic power generation occupy a dominant position. By the end of June 2015, the cumulative grid-connected capacity of wind power in the country was 105.53 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world. Global wind power generation capacity reached 432.42 million kilowatts at the end of 2015, an increase of 17% from the end of 2014, surpassing nuclear power generation for the first time. According to the 2015 data of the National Energy Administration, as of the end of 2015, China's cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was 43.18 million kilowatts, becoming the country with the largest i...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

This law directly leads to the fact that the histogram of the measured value near 0 will be higher in the distribution of the measured value near 0 in the prediction box. At this time, non-bounded distributions such as normal distribution and universal distribution often exceed 0p.u. Synthesis error or even scheduling error

Therefore, although the general distribution is superior to the normal and beta distributions in terms of fitting effect, its non-bounded characteristics restrict its application. This patent takes this as the background and proposes a new distribution form, which can improve the fitting effect and effective distribution. It has more excellent effects in terms of boundary and mathematical properties

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