ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) aggregative indicator and runoff prediction method thereof

A comprehensive index and standard technology, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as inability to give real evaluations

Active Publication Date: 2016-12-21
CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID COMPANY
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Problems solved by technology

Although it expresses the comprehensive status of marine elements in each month, it cannot give a true evaluation of each El Niño (La Niña) event, which

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  • ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) aggregative indicator and runoff prediction method thereof
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  • ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) aggregative indicator and runoff prediction method thereof

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Embodiment Construction

[0027] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with specific examples.

[0028] A composite ENSO index and its runoff prediction method, re-studied and divided the multivariate ENSO (MEI). Taking ±0.5 as the standard value, the frequency of positive MEI≥0.5 is about 30.94%, the frequency of negative MEI≤-0.5 is 29.01%, and the remaining 40.05% is the frequency of normal years.

[0029] The intensity and duration of any ENSO event vary greatly. We defined five characteristic values, including extreme value, mean value and duration of months, to describe each event. With ±0.5 as the critical value, extract each El that reaches ±0.5 for 5 consecutive times / La process to calculate the extreme maximum MEI value (MEI max ), average MEI value (MEI mean ), the number of months after reaching the standard (MEI month ), Spatial Expansion (MEI spa ) and extreme anomaly area expansion (MEI exspa ). Combining these five characteristic parameters with...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) aggregative indicator and a runoff prediction method thereof. Duration time (MEImonth) is used for reflecting the persistence of an El Nino/La Nina event; average intensity (MEImean) and extreme intensity (MEImax) are used for expressing the intensity characteristics of the El Nino/La Nina event; a range that the temperature increase of equatorial pacific sea temperature is greater than or equal to 0.5DEG C(or less than or equal to 0.5) is used for representing the space expansibility (MEIspa) of a warm water region; a region of which the temperature change achieves or exceeds +/-2DEG C represents the expansion range (MEIexspa) of an extreme warming area; and the five parameters are used for constructing the ENSO aggregative indicator (MEIZ). The method comprehensively inspects the influence of the El Nino/La Nina event on atmosphere, the function of the method is that every event is scientifically distinguished, and the influence degree of the El Nino/La Nina event on the atmosphere is objectively evaluated.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an ENSO comprehensive index and a runoff prediction method thereof, belonging to the technical field of environmental protection. Background technique [0002] The multivariate ENSO (MEI, Wolter and Timlin, 1993, 1998) index is obtained through principal component analysis based on six tropical ocean observation elements. These six elements are sea level air pressure, zonal wind, meridional wind, sea surface temperature, air temperature above the sea, and total cloud cover in the sky. At present, the multivariate ENSO index is just a statistical data, which is the result of principal component analysis of six meteorological elements on the ocean. Although it expresses the comprehensive status of marine elements in each month, it cannot give a true evaluation of each El Niño (La Niña) event, which has comprehensive characteristics such as persistence, regional expansion, and intensity characteristics of the El Niño (La Niña) ev...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCG16Z99/00
Inventor 李树山唐红兵李崇浩荣艳淑徐亚男魏佳胡玉恒张亮贺晓婧朱坚葛朝霞
Owner CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID COMPANY
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