Classification of El Niño/La Niña and Runoff Prediction Method Using Enso Comprehensive Index
A comprehensive indicator, El Niño technology, used in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as not being able to give true evaluations
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[0028] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with specific examples.
[0029] A composite ENSO index and its runoff prediction method, re-studied and divided the multivariate ENSO (MEI). Taking ±0.5 as the standard value, the frequency of positive MEI≥0.5 is about 30.94%, the frequency of negative MEI≤-0.5 is 29.01%, and the remaining 40.05% is the frequency of normal years.
[0030] The intensity and duration of any ENSO event vary greatly. We defined five characteristic values, including extreme value, mean value and duration of months, to describe each event. With ±0.5 as the critical value, extract every 5 consecutive times to reach ±0.5 procedure to calculate the extreme intensity (MEI max ), mean intensity (MEI mean ), the number of months after reaching the standard (MEI month ), Spatial Expansion (MEI spa ) and extreme anomaly area expansion (MEI exspa ). Combining these five characteristic parameters with different weights can ge...
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