Airport delay prediction method and device

A technology for airports and forecasted values, applied in the field of airport delay forecasting methods and devices, capable of solving problems such as accurately obtaining weather

Active Publication Date: 2017-03-22
INST OF RADAR & ELECTRONICS CONFRONTATION ARMY AIR FORCE EQUIP RES INST OF PLA +1
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  • Abstract
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In view of this, the purpose of the embodiments of the present invention is to provide an airport delay prediction method and device to solve the problem that decision makers cannot directly or more accurately obtain the impact of weather on flight operations in air traffic management decision-making.

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  • Airport delay prediction method and device

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no. 1 example

[0036] see figure 2 , the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of airport delay prediction method, described method comprises:

[0037] Step S200: Obtain the environmental data of the selected airport at the selected time and the actual delay value of the airport matching the environmental data at the selected time;

[0038] In order to determine the correlation between traffic and weather, the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) defined the concept of Weather Traffic Index (WITI) several years ago. Weather Traffic Index (WITI), that is, at a given instant, the number of aircraft affected by strong convective weather. For the calculation of WITI, an extended area around the severe weather grid is available, and a series of statistical features - histogram-based features, as well as time-domain features, which make it expressive in establishing estimated and reported NAS delay relationships the best correlation.

[0039] In order to study the influence betwee...

no. 2 example

[0092] Please refer to Figure 10 , the embodiment of the present invention provides an airport delay prediction device 300, the device 300 includes:

[0093] The raw data acquisition unit 310 is used to acquire the environmental data of the selected airport at the selected time and the actual delay value of the airport matched with the environmental data at the selected time;

[0094] Obtain the environmental capacity decay delay data unit 320 to obtain the daily average airport delay time within the selected time, and based on the environmental data, the daily average airport delay time and the environmental capacity decay delay calculation rule, obtain the Environmental capacity attenuation delay data of the above environmental data;

[0095] As an implementation manner, the unit 320 for obtaining environmental capacity decay delay data is configured to use the environmental data, the daily average airport delay time, reference data of the environmental data, and presets c...

no. 3 example

[0100] Please refer to Figure 11 , the embodiment of the present invention provides an airport delay prediction device 400, the device 400 comprising:

[0101] The raw data acquisition unit 410 is used to acquire the environmental data of the selected airport at the selected time and the actual delay value of the airport matching the environmental data at the selected time;

[0102] Obtain the environmental capacity decay delay data unit 420, obtain the daily average airport delay time within the selected time, and based on the environmental data, the daily average airport delay time and the environmental capacity decay delay calculation rule, obtain the Environmental capacity attenuation delay data of the above environmental data;

[0103] As an implementation manner, the unit 420 for obtaining environmental capacity decay delay data is configured to: The capacity decay percentage is based on: the environmental capacity decay delay data of the environmental data = (the env...

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Abstract

An embodiment of the invention provides an airport delay prediction method and an airport delay prediction device, which belong to the technical field of air traffic volume management. The airport delay prediction method comprises the steps of: acquiring environmental data of a selected airport within selected time and an airport actual delay value matched with the environmental data at the selected time, wherein the environmental data includes environmental prediction data; acquiring daily average airport delay time within the selected time according to the airport actual delay value, and acquiring environmental capacity attenuation delay data of the environmental data based on the environmental data, the daily average airport delay time and an environmental capacity attenuation delay calculation rule; establishing an airport delay regression model by utilizing a regression analysis method; and acquiring an airport delay predicted value of the environmental prediction data based on the airport delay regression model, the environmental prediction data and the environmental capacity attenuation delay data of the environmental prediction data. Therefore, the problem that the influence of weather on flight operation cannot be obtained by a decision maker directly or more precisely is solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of air traffic volume management, in particular to an airport delay prediction method and device. Background technique [0002] By studying the delay characteristics of the National Airspace System (NAS), it can be determined that the main causes of delay include: traffic flow control, and adverse ground and en-route weather. Weather is often cited as the biggest trigger, as it causes approximately 70% of NAS delays. At present, most of the air traffic management decisions related to weather are all done manually. Decision makers cannot directly obtain the results of the impact of weather on flight operations. Instead, they need to check various weather information and analyze weather information through experience. Analyzing and removing its effects is inefficient and varies with individual experience. Contents of the invention [0003] In view of this, the purpose of the embodiments of the present inve...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08G5/00
CPCG08G5/00
Inventor 李海峰唐治理朱永文王长春付莹李静周臣
Owner INST OF RADAR & ELECTRONICS CONFRONTATION ARMY AIR FORCE EQUIP RES INST OF PLA
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