GIS-based quick typhoon path prediction method

Abstract

The invention provides a GIS-based quick typhoon path prediction method and belongs to the technical field of disaster prevention and reduction. The method comprises the steps of firstly performing similar typhoon path identification for identifying historical typhoon data with a similar path with current typhoon; secondly based on the historical similar path, performing future typhoon path prediction, and predicting a possible path of the typhoon in future 24 hours and 48 hours; and finally realizing the prediction process in a GIS platform, and according to the current typhoon path, realizing quick and automatic future path prediction. For checking the reasonability of the method, more than 100 historical typhoon samples are selected from records of 10 years to perform prediction; the precision of 24h and 48h position prediction is close to the prediction precision of the China meteorological agency, but no support of a supercomputer is needed, and a result can be given within a fewminutes; and the method can serve as an early quick prediction method for wind prevention command decision making of a local wind prevention emergency department before a meteorological department issues a formal meteorological forecast.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of disaster prevention and mitigation, in particular to a GIS-based typhoon track rapid prediction method. Background technique [0002] Typhoon landfall often causes serious disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina (Katrina) that landed in Florida and Louisiana in August 2005, causing more than 1,500 deaths and economic losses of 40-50 billion US dollars. Before the typhoon officially lands, predicting the possible path of the typhoon as early as possible is of great significance for the wind prevention and disaster relief work in the area where the typhoon may land. [0003] At present, the numerical analysis method has become the main method of typhoon track prediction in practice. Some well-known numerical models have achieved good results in typhoon prediction, such as the regional prediction model GFDL (Geophysical FluidDynamics Laboratory) (Kurihara, Y., R.E.Tuleya, and M.A.Bender, 1998: The GFDLhurrican...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the typhoon track prediction based on numerical analysis must rely on high-performance computer resources, and the calculation process is long.

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