Statistical downscaling model forecasting factor screening method

A technology of predictors and screening methods, applied in prediction, calculation, instrumentation, etc., can solve problems such as mining useful information, affecting prediction accuracy, and not considering the influence of adjacent grids

Active Publication Date: 2018-01-09
CHINA THREE GORGES UNIV +1
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Problems solved by technology

The traditional factor selection only considers the influence of the factors of the grid where the station is located on the forecast, but does not consi...

Method used

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  • Statistical downscaling model forecasting factor screening method
  • Statistical downscaling model forecasting factor screening method
  • Statistical downscaling model forecasting factor screening method

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Embodiment Construction

[0057] Embodiments of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0058] Such as figure 1 , a method for screening statistical downscaling model predictors, comprising the following steps:

[0059] Step 1, establish the location relationship map of the basin meteorological stations and grids;

[0060] Step 2. Deduce the correlation between the measured precipitation, temperature and other forecasts of each station and the atmospheric circulation factor of the reanalysis data, including the correlation with the grid where the meteorological station is located and the correlation with the surrounding grids. According to the set correlation The coefficient threshold selects the appropriate factor;

[0061] Step 3, analyze the changes in the certainty coefficient of the rate-period judgment standard under the three scales of month, season and year;

[0062] Step 4: Analyze and test the model according to different scal...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a statistical downscaling model forecasting factor screening method. The method comprises the steps that 1 a positional relationship graph between a weather station and a gridin a river basin is established; 2 the correlation among measured rainfall of each station, temperature and other predictand and a reanalysis data atmospheric circulation factor is deduced, includingthe correlation with the grid of the weather station and the correlation with surrounding grids, and appropriate factors are selected according to a set correlation coefficient threshold; 3 the change of a criterion certainty coefficient in a calibration period on monthly, seasonal and annual scales is analyzed; and 4 according to different scales and different factor selection methods in the step 3, a model is analyzed and tested.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for screening predictors, in particular to a method for screening statistical downscaling model predictors. Background technique [0002] Affected by global climate change, the climatic and hydrological processes around the world have undergone significant changes in the past half a century, leading to an increase in extreme events such as precipitation and temperature in many regions (or basins), frequent floods, lakes, etc. Phenomena such as water body shrinkage intensified. In this context, it is urgent to study the quantitative changes of climate and predict future climate change. , generally rely on the climate variables provided by the Global Climate Model (GCM), that is, to combine the climate variables output by the Global Climate Model with the environmental response model (such as: hydrological model) to evaluate the impact of environmental elements (such as: runoff) on climate Changes in response. The out...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/10
Inventor 郭家力张静文程雄戴凌全
Owner CHINA THREE GORGES UNIV
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