Attack-oriented network security situation prediction method, device and system

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of network security and particularly relates to an attack-oriented network security situation prediction method, device and system. The method comprises the following steps: detecting and collecting alarm data and network environment operation and maintenance information in a network countermeasure environment, obtaining an element set required by network security situation prediction, wherein the element set comprises three types of information of an attacker, a defense party and a network environment; evaluating the attacker capability and the level of the defense party, establishing a dynamic Bayesian attack graph, and calculating an attack phase number and an attack state occurrence probability vector; and combining a vulnerability scoring standard and network asset information, and performing time-space dimension quantification on the network security situation value. According to the method, dynamic association of the situation elements of the defense party, the attacker, the environment information and the like is achieved, the actual environment of the network is better conformed to, the future situation and the attack occurrencetime can be accurately predicted, higher prediction efficiency is achieved, and storage scale and timeliness of network security situation awareness are optimized, so as to provide more effective guidance for network protection.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of network security, and particularly relates to an attack-oriented network security situation prediction method, device and system. Background technique [0002] With the continuous expansion of the network scale, the combination of traditional industries and the Internet has become more and more extensive, and people's lives have been highly dependent on the Internet. The current network security environment is not optimistic. Network attacks are becoming more frequent and the threats and losses caused are increasing. Therefore, understanding, understanding and predicting the security status and development trend of the network in the complex and changeable network environment will help managers to grasp the network security status in time, and prevent possible future threats in advance to reduce attacks. Harm to the network. Network security situation prediction is an important part of security situation awa...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The current mainstream network security situation prediction methods are generally divided into the following three types: 1) Method based on time-space sequence analysis. The assumption of this method is that the change of security situation value has regularity and periodicity. The analysis of the security situation value, so as to realize the prediction of the network security trend, this method does not analyze the changes of the network security situation elements and the interaction between the dynamic security situation elements, so the mode is fixed, and the prediction of emergencies is not strong

2) A method based on game theory. In the offensive and defensive confrontation environment, this method uses game theory to dynamically select the optimal strategy selection for the attacker and the defender, and comprehensively analyzes the changes in the attacker, defender, and network environment information. The selection of elements is relatively comprehensive, and the application of game theory in the military field is relatively mature, but in the network environment, there are strong suddenness and too many unpredictable factors, so it is difficult to establish a game theory model for network attack and defense; and this method can only be used for Short-term forecasts of security trends, unable to give long-term forecasts of network situation

However, this method only considers the information of the attacker and the network environment, and the attack graph established by it is a static attack graph, ignoring the impact of the defender's strategy choice on the future security situation of the network.

In summary, there are some problems that need to be solved urgently in the existing methods: 1) Lack of dynamic correlation between the defender, the attacker and the environmental information and other situational elements

Existing methods are all predictions of the network for a period of time in the future, and the prediction is the next stage, which is ambiguous in time and lacks the quantitative prediction of the successful intrusion time of the attack

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