Load prediction method based on industry-classified power utilization characteristic analysis

A technology of load forecasting and power consumption characteristics, applied in the direction of electrical components, circuit devices, AC network circuits, etc., can solve the problems that cannot meet the specific development reality of the city, the accuracy cannot meet the requirements of refined work, and the prediction model is more dependent. Multiple problems, to achieve the effect of rich forecast results, accurate load forecast results, and strong algorithm applicability
CN109858728AActive Publication Date: 2019-06-07STATE GRID ZHEJIANG ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY TAIZHOU POWER SUPPLY +1
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN ยท China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
STATE GRID ZHEJIANG ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY TAIZHOU POWER SUPPLY
Publication Date
2019-06-07

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Abstract

The invention discloses a load prediction method based on industry-classified power utilization characteristic analysis, and the method comprises the following steps: S1, dividing power users into industry power utilization users and resident power utilization users, dividing the resident power utilization users into residence community users and small-capacity public transformers; S2, identifyingsaturated users and unsaturated users in industrial power utilization users and residential district users by using a load saturation identification technology; S3, taking the average load value of the saturated users as a future prediction value in recent three years; carrying out typical growth pattern analysis on unsaturated users and installation users; S4, summarizing and counting the natural growth rate of the small-capacity public transformer; S5, calculating the coincidence rate in the industry and the coincidence rate between the industries respectively; and S6, summarizing all typesof loads to obtain a whole-region load prediction result. Classification prediction is carried out on the basis of power utilization growth characteristic analysis of mass user load data, and then the simultaneous rates of all levels are applied to summarize and calculate the total load prediction result of the area.
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Description

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to the field of electric load characteristics research, in particular to a load forecasting method based on the analysis of industry-specific power consumption characteristics. Background technique

[0002] Power quantity forecasting is related to power system dispatching and operation, production and operation plan formulation, and grid planning. Accurate power quantity forecasting results can avoid grid risks and help improve system security, stability, and grid investment benefits. At present, there are three main categories of short-term power load forecasting methods for power supply enterprises:

[0003] 1) Trend extrapolation method. It is mainly based on regression analysis, exponential smoothing and other models, using time and electric power as parameters to fit the model, and calculating the model value according to the time development as the future forecast value;

[0004] 2) A prediction method based on the interna...

Claims

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