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Method and system for predicting medium-and-long-term electric heating requirements

A technology for demand forecasting and electric heating, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of lack of analysis, lack of scientificity and systematicness of the structural reasons for the growth of heating demand, lack of scientificity and systematicness, and the separation of electric heating demand forecast from the actual user demand.

Pending Publication Date: 2019-08-16
STATE GRID ENERGY RES INST
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The insufficiency of current electric heating demand analysis is mainly reflected in two aspects: First, at present, a simple estimation of a certain replacement ratio is basically carried out based on the scale of coal-fired heating in various regions, and there is a lack of analysis of the structural drivers of user heating demand growth, which leads to the deviation of electric heating demand forecasting The actual user demand is lack of scientific and systematic; Second, the forecast of more electric heating demand is limited to electric heating area and electric heating power consumption

Method used

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  • Method and system for predicting medium-and-long-term electric heating requirements
  • Method and system for predicting medium-and-long-term electric heating requirements
  • Method and system for predicting medium-and-long-term electric heating requirements

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Embodiment 1

[0076] Such as figure 1 As shown, a method for forecasting medium and long-term electric heating demand provided by the present invention includes:

[0077] Step S1, obtaining heating parameters in the area to be predicted;

[0078] Step S2, predicting the electric heating demand within the period to be predicted based on the heating parameters and the pre-built electric heating demand forecasting model;

[0079] The electric heating demand prediction model is constructed according to the relationship between the electric heating area, electric heating power, electric heating load and electric heating matching grid capacity under each scenario mode;

[0080] The heating parameters include: coal-fired heating area in the base year, the proportion of electric heating replacing coal-fired heating, the proportion of new electric heating promotion, and the scale of shantytown renovation plan.

[0081] This embodiment starts from the user's heating demand, incorporates electric he...

Embodiment 2

[0178] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a mid- and long-term electric heating demand forecasting system, including:

[0179] An acquisition module, used to acquire heating parameters in the area to be predicted;

[0180] A prediction module, configured to predict the electric heating demand within the period to be predicted based on the heating parameters and the pre-built electric heating demand forecasting model;

[0181] The electric heating demand prediction model is constructed according to the relationship between the electric heating area, electric heating power, electric heating load and electric heating matching grid capacity under each scenario mode;

[0182] The heating parameters include: coal-fired heating area in the base year, the proportion of electric heating replacing coal-fired heating, the proportion of new electric heating promotion, and the scale of shantytown renovation plan.

[0183] In an embodiment, the system ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method and a system for predicting medium-and-long-term electric heating requirements. The method comprises the following steps: predicting an electric heating demand in a period to be predicted based on the heating parameters and a pre-constructed electric heating demand prediction model, wherein the electric heating demand prediction model is constructed according to the relationship among the electric heating area, the electric heating electric quantity, the electric heating load and the electric heating matched power grid capacity under each scene mode, the heating parameters comprise the coal-fired heating area and the newly-added electric heating popularization proportion. The invention provides a whole-process prediction method, a pervasive and easy-to-uselaw model is formed, and a decision basis is provided for accurately mastering the future development potential of electric heating and making a development strategy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of clean heating, in particular to a method and system for predicting medium and long-term electric heating demand. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the abnormal global climate change, the lowest temperature in some areas has continuously set a record low. Heating in order to prevent the cold has become an inevitable choice. What kind of heating is economical and can meet the needs of users? Most of China uses coal heating to cause serious pollution, and the use of clean heating has important practical significance for controlling air pollution and improving the lifestyle of rural residents. As an important way of clean heating, electric heating is ushering in rapid development, but there is no scientific and systematic analysis and prediction methodology for electric heating demand, and it is urgent to build a scientific and systematic electric heating demand analysis model. [0003] The insuffici...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 王成洁单葆国吴鹏谭显东张煜刘小聪贾跃龙唐伟张成龙吴姗姗王向冀星沛徐朝李江涛张莉莉段金辉张春成
Owner STATE GRID ENERGY RES INST
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