Electric power daily load prediction method

A forecasting method and load forecasting technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as the non-generality of load curve clustering and difficulty in establishing load forecasting models, so as to promote the economic development of the power market and improve The effect of load forecasting efficiency and improving calculation efficiency

Pending Publication Date: 2020-01-14
YUNNAN POWER GRID CO LTD ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] In order to overcome the shortcomings of the prior art that the clustering of load curves is not general and the establishment of load forecasting models is difficult, and effectively improve the accuracy of power load forecasting results, a daily power load forecasting method was invented

Method used

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  • Electric power daily load prediction method
  • Electric power daily load prediction method
  • Electric power daily load prediction method

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Experimental program
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Embodiment

[0047] Such as figure 1 As shown, a kind of power daily load forecasting method provided by the present invention comprises the following steps carried out in order:

[0048] S1. Use the improved method based on k-means clustering method to extract and analyze the load characteristics of the collected daily load data, and establish a set of load categories. The specific operations are as follows: figure 2 Take the daily load curve diagram of a certain place for one year as an example to carry out cluster analysis on the load curve. The formula for calculating the distance between samples is shown in formula (1). image 3 .

[0049]

[0050] d in formula (1) sp is the distance between the two load curves; is the first peak load value of the load curve s; is the time when the load curve s reaches the first peak load; is the second peak load value of the load curve s; is the time when the load curve s reaches the second peak load; is the first valley load value of t...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an electric power daily load prediction method. The method comprises the following steps: 1, ; and establishing a load category set, establishing a key influence factor set, calculating a classification rule between the load category and the key influence factor characteristic value to establish a classification model, analyzing the category to which the key influence factor data of the day to be predicted belongs, training a load prediction model, and calculating a power load prediction result by using the load prediction model. According to the scheme, the problem that a load prediction model is inaccurate due to divergence of load data can be effectively avoided, the accuracy of a prediction result is improved. Meanwhile, the data dimension in the prediction process can be reduced, the calculation efficiency is improved, the power generation requirement and the power selling requirement can be effectively met, economic benefits are guaranteed, and developmentof power market economy is promoted.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electric power distribution, in particular to a method for forecasting daily electric power loads. Background technique [0002] The safe, reliable, stable and economical operation of the power system is related to the electricity consumption and interests of the production of industrial and agricultural enterprises and people's lives. The power load forecasting work not only has very important reference value for power generation, but also can effectively ensure the balance of power production and consumption , improve the stability of the power system to a certain extent, and with the opening of the power market, power production and consumption become more market-oriented, and the real-time result data of load forecasting will also become an important reference data for the power trading center. Accurate load forecasting results are of great importance to The operation planning of power generation comp...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06K9/62
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06393G06Q50/06G06F18/23213G06F18/2411
Inventor 罗恩博李耀华陆海苏适李翔杨洋张旭东
Owner YUNNAN POWER GRID CO LTD ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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