Unconventional natural gas fracturing effect evaluation and productivity prediction method based on principal component analysis

Abstract

The invention discloses an unconventional natural gas fracturing effect evaluation and productivity prediction method based on principal component analysis. The method comprises the following steps: 1) establishing an unconventional natural gas fracturing effect evaluation and productivity prediction evaluation database; 2) standardizing the original data; 3) calculating a covariance matrix; 4) solving a characteristic value and a characteristic vector; 5) calculating a variance contribution rate and an accumulated variance contribution rate, and determining the number of principal components;6) determining m vectors of the principal component, and outputting a new data sample; 7) establishing a multiple linear regression model according to the new sample, and performing fitting simulation test on the established multiple linear regression model; 8) performing fitting simulation inspection; and 9) carrying out shale gas fracturing effect evaluation and productivity prediction by usingthe established multiple linear regression model. According to the method, the problems of low linear relevancy and data redundancy of original data, artificial subjective factors caused by the factthat an existing evaluation method needs a large amount of sample data and expert scoring and the like can be well solved, and the accuracy of unconventional natural gas fracturing effect evaluation and productivity prediction is improved.

Description

Technical field: [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of unconventional natural gas development and quantitative prediction models, and specifically relates to unconventional natural gas fracturing effect evaluation and productivity prediction technology. Background technique: [0002] Shale gas, tight sandstone gas, and coalbed methane are unconventional natural gas. At present, the state attaches great importance to the development and utilization of shale gas. At the same time, my country's demand for natural gas is strong, and shale gas is bound to become an important supplement to the current natural gas resources. The exploration and development of shale gas is undoubtedly of great social and economic significance. Accurate evaluation of shale gas fracturing effects and productivity prediction is of great significance for guiding shale gas exploration and development. [0003] With the continuous improvement of extraction technologies such as seismic at...

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Problems solved by technology

[0010] The present invention proposes an unconventional natural gas fracturing effect evaluation and productivity prediction method based on principal component analysis to solve the problems caused by the low linear correlation of original data and data redundancy, the need for a large number of sample data, and expert scoring in the existing evaluation methods. Subjective factors and other issues

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