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Power grid risk prediction method based on improved gray Markov model

A technology of risk prediction and gray model, applied in the direction of prediction, digital data processing, resources, etc., can solve the problems of data dispersion and reduced prediction accuracy, and achieve great economic benefits and reduce losses.

Pending Publication Date: 2020-08-28
ZHEJIANG UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

At present, the gray system theory has many limitations: the more discrete and irregular the data, the lower the prediction accuracy will be

Method used

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  • Power grid risk prediction method based on improved gray Markov model
  • Power grid risk prediction method based on improved gray Markov model
  • Power grid risk prediction method based on improved gray Markov model

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Embodiment

[0038] Embodiment: The present invention adopts an improved gray Markov-based power grid risk prediction method, which can not only make up for the low prediction accuracy of the gray system theory for data sequences with large random fluctuations, but also make up for the defects of the Markov model. The improved gray Markov model has gone through several main processes of establishing a gray system model, optimizing background values, calculating prediction functions, dividing state intervals, establishing state transition matrices, Markov corrections, and obtaining predicted values, thus obtaining a series of high-precision high prediction results. Such as figure 1 As shown, a power grid risk prediction method based on the improved gray Markov model includes the following steps:

[0039] (1) Read the monthly risk warning data of the operation project safety risk management and control system of Zhejiang Electric Power Company, as shown in Table 1 below, is the risk warning...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a power grid risk prediction method based on an improved gray Markov model. The method comprises the steps: carrying out the prediction of a risk index through employing a method combining a gray system theory and the Markov model, and optimizing the background value selection of a conventional gray system model; according to the method, the two prediction models are effectively optimized and then combined together, the feasibility of the combined model is proved through data, prediction can be carried out according to risk early warning indexes of past months, specific suggestions can be provided for later power grid policy making, and the method has a great application market.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grid early warning analysis, in particular to a power grid risk prediction method based on an improved gray Markov model. Background technique [0002] After entering the 21st century, the society is constantly progressing, the economy is gradually developing, and the development of the electric power industry is also changing with each passing day. Reasonable and scientific grid risk early warning research is one of the important contents of the power industry development research. Accurate risk early warning can effectively improve the safety level of the power industry and help to formulate strategic plans and policies for the development of the power industry. [0003] At present, there have been many discussions and researches on forecasting methods, and a relatively complete theoretical system of quantitative forecasting has been formed, mainly including regression analysis, gray forecasting,...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F30/20
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F30/20G06F2113/04
Inventor 邹淇超郑河荣潘翔邱雷
Owner ZHEJIANG UNIV OF TECH
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