Medium and long term load prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses a medium and long term load prediction method, and the method comprises the steps: finding out an economic factor which has a long term equilibrium relation with electric quantity through a co-integration test in measurement economics based on a Granger causality test and an LSTM; determining economic factors beneficial to electric quantity prediction by using a Granger causality test method so as to reduce the number of input variables of the prediction model; and finally, inputting the economic factor data into the LSTM model for load prediction. A method of combining the Granger causal relationship test and the LSTM time sequence prediction model is introduced into a multivariable system, the medium-and-long-term load prediction model which is not easy to overfit and high in expandability is constructed, and the model is used for medium-and-long-term load prediction. And the predicted medium-and-long-term load has relatively high accuracy.

Description

technical field [0001] The present application relates to the technical field of electric power intelligent forecasting, in particular to a method for medium and long-term load forecasting. Background technique [0002] Medium- and long-term power load forecasting is to fully consider the system characteristics, natural and social conditions, and use reliable methods and means to determine the load value at a specific time in the future under the condition of meeting a certain accuracy according to the historical load value. At present, medium and long-term load forecasting methods include regression analysis based on mathematical statistics, time series analysis, gray forecasting, etc. In addition, there are some intelligent forecasting methods such as artificial neural network, support vector machine, combined forecasting, etc. [0003] Because the accuracy of medium and long-term load forecasting is affected by various random factors such as politics, economy, population,...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] This application provides a medium and long-term load forecasting method to solve the problem that the forecasting accuracy of existing load forecasting methods needs to be improved

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