Photovoltaic output day-ahead prediction method

A forecasting method and photovoltaic technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problem of not considering the impact of meteorological information forecasting accuracy, and achieve forecasting accuracy, optimization effect, and maximize effect.

Pending Publication Date: 2022-06-14
华电河南新能源发电有限公司 +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In fact, the existing methods do not consider the impact of meteorological information on the accuracy of prediction results.

Method used

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Embodiment Construction

[0022] In order to make the objectives, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention, but not to limit the present invention.

[0023] The specific implementation of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to specific embodiments.

[0024] see figure 1 and figure 2 , a photovoltaic output day-ahead prediction method, the method includes the following steps:

[0025] Judgment of weather status: According to the weather forecast reference data provided by the Meteorological Department. Including relevant data such as temperature, humidity, wind direction, wind force, and solar radiation intensity, etc., the current weather state is studied and judged, and the corresponding cloud ind...

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Abstract

The invention is suitable for the technical field of photovoltaic output prediction, and particularly relates to a photovoltaic output day-ahead prediction method, which comprises the following steps: weather state judgment: studying and judging the weather condition of the predicted day according to real-time weather information acquired by a weather acquisition device; model selection: performing model selection according to a weather condition result given by a weather state judgment module, if the weather is a sunny day, selecting a sunny sky prediction model, otherwise, selecting an artificial neural network model; and photovoltaic output prediction: in combination with system parameter information collected in real time, photovoltaic output is predicted through the selected prediction model. According to the method, the prediction precision of the clear sky model and the artificial neural network model under different weather conditions is combined, and the hybrid photovoltaic prediction method is constructed by analyzing the precision relationship between the cloud cover index and the photovoltaic prediction model, so that the photovoltaic output prediction precision is maximized, and the optimization effect can be achieved under various weather conditions.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic output forecasting, and in particular relates to a day-ahead forecasting method of photovoltaic output. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the increase in global energy demand, the research on alternative renewable energy has received worldwide attention. Among all renewable energy sources, photovoltaic (PV) power plants have attracted much attention due to their availability, low maintenance and operating costs, long lifetime, and environmental advantages. As a result, global solar production increased from 3.7 GW to 402 GW. In order to integrate photovoltaic power plants into existing grids, their uncertainties must be resolved. The easiest way to manage solar uncertainty is to use accurate forecasts. [0003] Over the years, many photovoltaic power forecasting techniques have been developed. It can be roughly classified according to the method of solving the problem. ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 孙国强刘扬志王长征王新居项航刘建伟马腾飞李鲁陶王照阳朱锋朱辰泽刘川刘思君王腾
Owner 华电河南新能源发电有限公司
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