Method for predicting suburban rail transit passenger flow

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for predicting suburban rail transit passenger flow, which comprises the following steps: (1) constructing a prediction model basic data base through OD (Origin and Destination) matrix estimation and station attraction; (2) conducting the distribution network of the rail transit passenger flow according to the functional localization of suburban rail transit and by combining an operation connection mode; (3) conducting a prediction model respectively aiming at the operation connection mode between the suburban rail transit and the urban rail transit; (4) distributing suburban rail transit passenger flow on a corresponding rail transit distribution network by combining the prediction model and the basal data so as to obtain the whole line passenger flow, the station passenger flow, the branch passenger flow and the transferring passenger flow of the suburban rail transit; (5) and recommending a best operation planning scheme by comparing the passenger flow prediction results of different operation organization schemes, and performing the passenger flow prediction of a final scheme according to the recommended operation planning scheme. The invention overcomes the defect in the prior art that the prediction results are unsatisfactory and have lager difference with the ex-post real data, and further improves the accuracy of predicting.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting passenger flow of suburban rail transit. The invention is applicable to the passenger flow prediction of the suburban rail transit in super large and big cities in my country, and can better support the planning and design of the suburban rail transit. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of economies in various countries and the acceleration of urbanization, cities have begun to show a trend of developing towards peripheral clusters. At the same time, the characteristics of urban clusters have become increasingly prominent. How to solve the communication between peripheral clusters and central urban areas, and promote and drive the development of urban peripheral clusters It is the key to solve the current "urban disease" in our country. Compared with other modes of transportation, rail transit has the characteristics of large capacity, fast speed, safety, punctuality, and environme...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

This method will overcome the shortcomings of the unsatisfactory prediction results in the existing technology and the large gap between the actual data after the event; it can further improve the accuracy of the prediction

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