Method for predicting suburban rail transit passenger flow

A technology of urban rail transit and rail transit, which is applied in the field of passenger flow prediction of suburban rail transit, can solve the problems of large gaps in actual data and unsatisfactory prediction results, and achieve the effect of improving accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2011-04-20
JIANGSU TRANSPORTATION RES INST CO LTD
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

This method will overcome the shortcomings of the unsatisfactory prediction results in the existing technology

Method used

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  • Method for predicting suburban rail transit passenger flow
  • Method for predicting suburban rail transit passenger flow
  • Method for predicting suburban rail transit passenger flow

Examples

Experimental program
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Embodiment 1

[0073] Embodiment 1, take Nanjing as an example of a central + peripheral city; take Lanzhou as an example of a belt-shaped city. Aiming at these two different forms of cities, the verification analysis is carried out from the different operation modes of joint operation with urban rail transit and connection with intermodal transport. Now take the passenger flow forecast of the suburban rail transit in Lanzhou City as an example to explain. The details are as follows:

[0074] (1) Rail transit network plan in the vision year

[0075] urban rail line planning

[0076] Line 1: Donggang Station-Dongfanghong Square Station-Nanguan Shizi Station-Xiguan Shizi Station-Xiaoxihu Station-West Railway Station-Chenguanying Station, with a length of 26km.

[0077] Line 2: Yanbei Road Station - Lanzhou Station - Dongfanghong Square Station - Nanguan Station - Xiguan Cross Station - Polytechnic University Station - West Railway Station - Peili Square Station - Feijiaying Station - Yuant...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a method for predicting suburban rail transit passenger flow, which comprises the following steps: (1) constructing a prediction model basic data base through OD (Origin and Destination) matrix estimation and station attraction; (2) conducting the distribution network of the rail transit passenger flow according to the functional localization of suburban rail transit and by combining an operation connection mode; (3) conducting a prediction model respectively aiming at the operation connection mode between the suburban rail transit and the urban rail transit; (4) distributing suburban rail transit passenger flow on a corresponding rail transit distribution network by combining the prediction model and the basal data so as to obtain the whole line passenger flow, the station passenger flow, the branch passenger flow and the transferring passenger flow of the suburban rail transit; (5) and recommending a best operation planning scheme by comparing the passenger flow prediction results of different operation organization schemes, and performing the passenger flow prediction of a final scheme according to the recommended operation planning scheme. The invention overcomes the defect in the prior art that the prediction results are unsatisfactory and have lager difference with the ex-post real data, and further improves the accuracy of predicting.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting passenger flow of suburban rail transit. The invention is applicable to the passenger flow prediction of the suburban rail transit in super large and big cities in my country, and can better support the planning and design of the suburban rail transit. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of economies in various countries and the acceleration of urbanization, cities have begun to show a trend of developing towards peripheral clusters. At the same time, the characteristics of urban clusters have become increasingly prominent. How to solve the communication between peripheral clusters and central urban areas, and promote and drive the development of urban peripheral clusters It is the key to solve the current "urban disease" in our country. Compared with other modes of transportation, rail transit has the characteristics of large capacity, fast speed, safety, punctuality, and environme...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/00G06Q50/00
Inventor 马永红王涛峰李臻范军琳
Owner JIANGSU TRANSPORTATION RES INST CO LTD
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