Epidemic situation prediction method for infectious disease having immune period and influenced by seasons

A prediction method, a technology of infectious diseases, applied in the field of epidemic prediction of infectious diseases, can solve the problems of prediction result error, not considering the actual situation, not considering the influence of season on virus transmission, etc., and achieve the effect of high prediction accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2011-10-19
中国人民解放军防化指挥工程学院
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Problems solved by technology

The usual SEIRS model refers to a model that takes into account the susceptible, the incubation period, the onset, and the cured. It does not take into account the impact of the season on the spread of the virus. It is mainly based

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  • Epidemic situation prediction method for infectious disease having immune period and influenced by seasons
  • Epidemic situation prediction method for infectious disease having immune period and influenced by seasons
  • Epidemic situation prediction method for infectious disease having immune period and influenced by seasons

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Embodiment Construction

[0028] The technical solutions of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0029] Step 1. Divide the population into four epidemiological categories: susceptible, latent period, onset, and cured (ignoring the impact of the death on the population ratio), assuming that the population is in equilibrium, the total number is 1, regardless of The natural birth, death and population migration of the population, the proportions of susceptible persons, latent persons, diseased persons, and cured persons to the total number are calculated as: S, E, I, R, which are all functions of time;

[0030] Step two, use κ 1 , κ 2 Respectively represent the infection rate of the incubation period person and the onset person, and it is also a function of time; D 1 Indicates the incubation period, D 2 Indicates the onset period, D 3 Table immunity period, for a fixed infectious disease, D 1 、D 2 and D 3 are treated ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to infectious disease epidemic situation prediction and belongs to the field of epidemic disease spreading and control. According to an infectious disease with an immune period, the invention provides an epidemic situation prediction method for the infectious disease having the immune period and influenced by seasons. Compared with the existing models, the method comprises the following steps: considering the influence of the immune period, setting up an epidemic situation prediction dynamic model for the infectious disease having the immune period and influenced by the seasons according to the change rate of relative time of susceptible persons, persons in an incubation period, infected persons and recovered persons, substituting an infection rate, the immune period, the incubation period and the like to obtain the change rules relative to time of all kinds of crowds, and completing the epidemic situation prediction of the communicable diseases. The method has higher prediction accuracy, and provides more reliable evidences for the epidemic situation control.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the prediction of the epidemic situation of infectious diseases and belongs to the field of epidemic spread and control. Background technique [0002] In recent years, there have been frequent outbreaks of large-scale infectious diseases, including SARS in 2003, bird flu in 2005, hand, foot and mouth disease in 2008, and H1N1 influenza in 2009. The consequences, in addition to direct casualties and huge medical expenses In addition to the cost, the indirect impact on the economy and the harm to the public's psychology and social stability are very serious. [0003] The beginning, outbreak and control process of infectious diseases follow corresponding objective laws, and scientific prediction of its evolution is an important link for decision-making departments to correctly judge the situation and make appropriate responses. There have been extensive and in-depth studies on the quantitative model theory of infectious disease e...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 黄顺祥刘峰徐莉王新明关彩虹符天保周学志
Owner 中国人民解放军防化指挥工程学院
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