Solar irradiation predicting method based on multiple linear regression

A technology of multiple linear regression and solar irradiation, which is applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., and can solve problems such as solar irradiation forecasting methods that have not yet appeared

Active Publication Date: 2014-04-30
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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  • Abstract
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Problems solved by technology

However, there is no solar irradiance forecasting method based on the analysis of cloud image features

Method used

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  • Solar irradiation predicting method based on multiple linear regression
  • Solar irradiation predicting method based on multiple linear regression
  • Solar irradiation predicting method based on multiple linear regression

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Embodiment Construction

[0071] The preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the preferred embodiments described here are only used to illustrate and explain the present invention, and are not intended to limit the present invention.

[0072] like figure 1 As shown, a method for forecasting solar radiation based on multiple linear regression includes the following steps,

[0073] Step 1, calculate the theoretical value of solar irradiance value;

[0074] Step 2, calculate the attenuation rate of solar radiation;

[0075] Step 3. Based on the multiple linear regression model, the monthly regression equations of cloud amount, cloud image brightness temperature, visible light emissivity and radiation attenuation rate are established;

[0076] Step 4. Calculate the predicted value of solar radiation according to the monthly regression equation established in the above step 3 and the theoretical valu...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a solar irradiation predicting method based on multiple linear regression. The method comprises the first step of calculating the theoretical value of the solar irradiation value, the second step of calculating the attenuation rate of the solar irradiation, the third step of establishing a month-by-month regression equation of the cloudage, the cloud picture brightness temperature, visible light emissivity and the radiation attenuation rate based on a multiple linear regression model, and the fourth step of calculating the actual solar irradiation intensity predicted value according to the month-by-month regression equation established in the third step and the theoretical value of the solar irradiation value. The month-by-month regression equation of the cloudage, the cloud picture brightness temperature, the visible light emissivity and the radiation attenuation rate is established based on the multiple linear regression model, the characteristic quantities of a cloud picture are predicted according to the linear regression model, and the purpose of accurately predicting the solar irradiation is achieved.

Description

technical field [0001] Specifically, the present invention relates to a method for forecasting solar radiation based on multiple linear regression. Background technique [0002] At present, solar energy resources are abundant and widely distributed, and it is the renewable energy with the most development potential in the 21st century. With the increasingly serious problems of global energy shortage and environmental pollution, solar photovoltaic power generation has become an emerging industry that is widely concerned and focused on development because of its clean, safe, convenient, and high-efficiency characteristics. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, my country will add about 10 million kilowatts of installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power stations, 1 million kilowatts of installed capacity of solar thermal power generation, and about 10 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaic power generation systems. In the next ten years, China's photovoltaic po...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 汪宁渤路亮王有生赵龙李照荣刘光途
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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