Prediction output uncertainty considered day-ahead power generation method of small hydropower and large and medium-sized hydropower station coordination

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of hydro-power dispatching, and discloses a small hydropower prediction output uncertainty considered day-ahead power generation plan making method of small hydropower and large and medium-sized hydropower station coordination. The method is characterized in that a small hydropower and large and medium-sized hydropower station coordination method is provided by taking the peak regulation electric quantity expectation maximization of a mall hydropower and large and medium-sized hydropower station coupling system as a target to effectively solve a problem of complex hydro-power operation. When small hydropower prediction output uncertainty is considered, the fuzzy clustering and situational analysis methods of the small hydropower prediction output uncertainty are proposed. On the basis, system load is used as an association factor, a successive approximation algorithm and an association search strategy for processing complex time period coupling constraints are mixed to establish a coordination solving frame of a small hydropower and large and medium-sized hydropower station group to coordinate the small hydropower with the large and medium-sized hydropower station and determine the operation plan of the large and medium-sized hydropower station, and the invention exhibits important example values and reference functions to the operation of the large hydropower station in China.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of hydropower system dispatching, and in particular relates to a method for formulating a day-ahead power generation plan coordinated between small hydropower and large and medium-sized hydropower stations in consideration of the uncertainty of small hydropower forecast output. technical background [0002] Under the guidance of the country's energy policy of promoting energy conservation and emission reduction, power grid energy-saving power generation dispatching has been carried out in depth. As an important clean and renewable energy source, small hydropower has gradually been favored by the society because of its flexible development methods and the advantages of effectively promoting rural economic development. It has attracted wide attention from all walks of life and has developed rapidly with an annual installed capacity of more than 2.5 million kW. By the end of 2011, more than 45,000 small hydropower statio...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The hydropower system coupled with small hydropower and large hydropower needs to meet the needs of the power grid, and at the same time is limited by the operation constraints of the provincial grid and power stations. Its power generation plan is limited by the consumption and transmission capacity of the power grid. question

In short-term power generation optimization, due to the characteristics of many decision variables, various objective functions, complex constraints, and high timeliness requirements, modeling and solving are very difficult, and the uncertainty of small hydropower output increases the complexity of modeling and solving

At present, domestic and foreign literatures mainly focus on the dispatching and related research of large and medium-sized hydropower and small hydropower respectively, but there is basically no modeling and solution considering the coordination of large and small hydropower coupling systems, and the optimization and dispatching of small hydropower and large hydropower coupling systems is very difficult. Large, significant theoretical and practical significance, directly related to and affect the safe and economic operation of the power grid, and at the same time realize the rational use of water resources

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