Quantitative analysis method for river runoff change caused by climate change and human activity

Abstract

The invention discloses a quantitative analysis method for river runoff change caused by climate change and human activities. The method comprises the steps of collecting hydrological and meteorological information, water resource evaluation data and human activity information in a basin, judging a mutation point of an annual runoff process, wherein the part before the mutation point is a natural stage of the basin and the part after the mutation point is an influence stage of the basin, the entire natural runoff sequence is reconstructed by using the hydrological and meteorological information of the natural stage, using hydrological model rating model parameters and then using meteorological information of the whole period, and analyzing the contribution of climate change and human activities to the river runoff change by using the difference between the reconstructed natural runoff and the actually measured runoff. By adopting the quantitative analysis method for river runoff change caused by climate change and human activities, in combination with situations such as hydrological and meteorological factor changes, land use changes and water use in the basin, the binary attribution analysis of the river runoff change caused by climate change and human activities is extended to quaternary attribution analysis of the river runoff change caused by rainfall change, climate change, land use change and water use.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the application field of hydrology and water resources, in particular to a quantitative analysis method for river runoff changes. Background technique [0002] River runoff is the core link of the hydrological cycle and the most important form of surface water resources, which directly affects the living conditions of human beings. However, due to factors such as climate change and human activities in recent decades, river runoff in many river basins in China and around the world has undergone significant changes. Most notably, the runoff of rivers such as the Hai, Yellow, and Liao in northern China has shown a marked downward trend. Taking the Haihe River Basin as an example, the annual average runoff from 1980 to 2008 was 40% to 70% lower than that from 1961 to 1980. The sharp reduction of river runoff not only poses a severe challenge to human living conditions and becomes a bottleneck restricting the sustainable developme...

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Problems solved by technology

However, what are the contributions of various climatic factors, such as changes in precipitation and temperature, to changes in river runoff? In addition, what is the impact of land use change and water withdrawal in the watershed on river runoff? There are no clear answers to these questions

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