Method for forecasting public building air conditioner short-time base wire load with consideration of real-time weather factors

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for forecasting public building air conditioner short-time base wire load with consideration of real-time weather factors. The method comprises the following steps: S1, calculating correlation between temperature, humidity, air speed, rainfall amount and the air conditioner load by using a Pearson correlation coefficient formula, and selecting strong linear correlation parameters as the real-time weather factors considered during forecasting of the public building air conditioner short-time load base wire; S2, respectively calculating the daily temperature-humidity index THI and a weighed temperature-humidity index THI of the forecasting date and two months before the forecasting date and selecting a typically-similar date of the forecasting date; and S3, calculating the air conditioner load value of 24 hours of the forecasting date by using a BP neural network method. The method can be used for forecasting the public building air conditioner short-time base wire load on a national scale and can also be used for providing theoretical support and data support for applying the typical public building air conditioner load to the regulation of power grid load.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a short-term baseline load forecasting method for air conditioners in public buildings considering real-time meteorological factors, which is suitable for forecasting short-term baseline loads for air conditioners in large-scale public buildings across the country, and belongs to the technical field of electric load forecasting. Background technique [0002] The air-conditioning load of my country's power grid in summer has accounted for about 30% of the peak load. The air-conditioning load is mainly concentrated in the peak hours of electricity consumption in summer, and the average annual duration is only a few hundred hours, but it has a great impact on the safety and economic operation of the power grid. Air conditioners also play an important role in winter load peaks. In the electricity load of commercial users, the air-conditioning load occupies a large proportion. Adjusting the air-conditioning load is of great signifi...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, due to the influence of economic and technical factors, the air-conditioning load in some areas of China cannot be accurately obtained, and the baseline load data of air-conditioning is also an important parameter for air-conditioning to participate in power grid dispatching

At present, there are no patents and literatures at home and abroad on how to design and real-time meteorological factors on the short-term baseline load forecasting method of air conditioners in public buildings

Images