Method for calculating chain fault probability of parallel power supply system
A technology of power supply system and failure probability, applied in the direction of calculation, system integration technology, information technology support system, etc., can solve problems such as inability to determine the probability of grid chain overload or chain failure, chain overload, and expansion of grid accidents.
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[0058] The specific implementation manners of the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
[0059] Implementation example of the method for calculating the probability of serial faults in a parallel power supply system of the present invention, see figure 1 , the parallel power supply system consists of N L lines parallel operation and N T transformer Composed of parallel operation, assuming that the load power is S D (S D =P D +jQ D ).
[0060] see figure 2 , this method includes the following formulas and steps:
[0061] p S F = Σ i = 1 N L p L M F ( i ) + Σ ...
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- ; S2, acquiring transformer operation data from the power grid EMS, wherein the transformer operation data comprises the number of transformer overload times, the time and occurrence conditions, determining a Poisson distribution function of the overload probability of an ith transformer by adopting the Monte-Carlo simulation method, and determining a parameter Lambda<Ti>
- ; S3, calculating the n times of line chain fault probability of the parallel power supply system with the calculation formula being defined in the description, wherein the n is greater than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to NL; S4, calculating the n times of transformer chain fault probability of the parallel power supply system with the calculation formula being defined in the description, wherein the n is greater than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to NT; and S5, calculating the chain fault probability of the parallel power supply system with the calculation formula being defined in the description. The method provided by the invention can provide necessary technical support for power grid dispatching operations.
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