Method for predicting spread range of microblog public opinions

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of social network modeling and analysis, and specifically relates to a method for predicting a spread range of microblog public opinions. The method comprises the following steps: step 1), constructing a propagation network model of a microblog system; step 2), selecting a sentinel node in a microblog propagation network for judging a public opinion coverage area; step 3), using a sentinel monitoring node to establish a prediction model of the spread range of the microblog public opinions; and step 4), performing empirical statistical analysis on an event public opinion in an actual microblog network, and determining a key parameter in the prediction model. According to the method for predicting the spread range of the microblog public opinions provided by the invention, an empirical statistical experiment is performed in a social network with 500 to 1,000 microblog nodes, so as to obtain important parameters of the prediction model; then a network microblog capture program is written voluntarily to analyze, and statistical processing is made to the social network data with 5,000 to 10,000 nodes; and the microblog network of this sc ale is used to verify the accuracy of the prediction method, and the experimental result shows that the prediction accuracy is about 83.2%.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of social network modeling and analysis, in particular to a method for predicting the spread range of microblog public opinion. Background technique [0002] Weibo has become one of the most important new media platforms in modern society. Compared with traditional media, Weibo has the characteristics of timeliness, fragmentation, freedom and openness, and popularity. But anyone can use Weibo to post bad opinions and comments, and after being forwarded and commented by many people, they will quickly spread to the entire social network. Some deceptive remarks can cause damage to social security, and seriously cause social group incidents. Therefore, the relevant government departments must analyze, monitor and predict the public opinion information in Weibo, and make preparations for further management and control. [0003] The existing Internet public opinion information monitoring and analysis mainly focus on two i...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] Existing microblog monitoring and analysis methods focus on automated analysis and processing and judgment of public opinion information, ignoring the analysis of public opinion dissemination trends in the entire online social network, and unable to provide network public opinion control personnel with the extent to which public opinion has spread, that is, unable to judge The spread of public opinion on an event

Images