The invention discloses a real-time yield prediction method for a hydrocracking device. Field real-time data are processed with a data reconciliation technology, and hydrocracking reaction kinetics parameters are corrected in real time in combination with an improved differential evolution algorithm, so that a mechanism model can accurately describe the actual running condition of the device. On the basis of the corrected model, effects caused by key operation/process conditions such as the raw material density, the sulfur content, the nitrogen content, the reaction temperature, the pressure, the hydrogen-to-oil volume ratio and the like on hydrocracked products are analyzed. Piecewise linearization is performed according to the effect trend, a linear equation is solved, corresponding Delta-Base yield data are acquired, the operation condition is associated with the Delta-Base data with a neutral network modeling technology, a yield surrogate model is established, the yield data calculation speed is increased, real-time prediction of the yield of products of the hydrocracking device is realized, and theoretical support is provided for establishing an accurate plan optimization PIMS (process industry modeling system) model.