The invention relates to the technical field of industrial
process quality control, in particular to a
process industry oriented quality prediction method with time-varying random fluctuation dynamics. A traditional quality prediction method has the following technical bottlenecks: a deterministic model or a static fluctuation rate
hypothesis is difficult to accurately describe time-varying random dynamics caused by
raw material characteristic fluctuation and frequent production load adjustment; meanwhile, a traditional
data processing method based on interpolation or deletion easily introduces
estimation deviation or causes
information loss, and the random missing phenomenon in process data cannot be effectively handled. The invention provides a novel quality prediction method aiming at the characteristics of frequent load change, multi-working-condition operation and the like in the
process industry and the problems of multi-scale data and high mixing performance. Firstly, a probabilistic fluctuation state modeling method is put forward, a state equation of a PCIR model is constructed, time-varying mean regression characteristics of a hidden fluctuation state are described through a special probability structure, and an interpretable modeling framework is provided for
system non-stationarity. Secondly, for the problem of data missing, a missing interval dynamic weight mechanism is designed, a weight vector is fused into an observation equation of a
state space model, adaptive
processing of random missing is achieved by dynamically adjusting the contribution degree of data of different missing durations to the model, and the limitation of a traditional method is overcome. Finally, according to the multi-working-condition operation characteristics of the
process industry, a quality prediction framework suitable for the process is provided, and automatic screening of key state characteristics can be achieved.