A simulator (SIM) for determining simulated performance quantities (PRS) for design variants of the product (P) and a
machine learning module (BNN) to be trained to determine predictive performance quantities (PRP) and their uncertainties (UC) are provided. Furthermore, a multitude of
design data records (DR) each specifying a design variant are generated. A respective
design data record (DR) is fed into the
machine learning module (BNN), and / or the corresponding design variant is simulated. Using simulated performance quantities (PRS) as training data, the
machine learning module (BNN) is trained in disjoint training phases (TP1, TP2, TP3). Between the disjoint training phases a correction factor (CF) for uncertainties (UC) determined by the
machine learning module (BNN) is derived by means of simulated performance quantities (PRS). The correction factor (CF) is used to correct future uncertainties (UC). The corrected uncertainties (UC') are then used to decide whether to run or to skip a
simulation. Accordingly, a performance value (PV) is derived from the simulated performance quantity (PRS) if the
simulation is run, or otherwise from the predictive performance quantity (PRP) determined by the
machine learning module. Depending on the generated performance values (PV), a performance-optimizing
design data record (ODR) is determined from the generated design
data records (DR). The performance-optimizing design data
record (ODR) is then output for controlling the production
plant.