Electric power system operation risk evaluation method based on random set theory

A power system and operation risk technology, applied in the direction of system integration technology, information technology support system, electrical components, etc., can solve problems that cannot reflect the probability distribution of indicators

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-08-18
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING) +2
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

Some articles have proposed a sensitivity analysis method to investigate the influence of parameter uncertainty on reliability indicators. The disadvantage of this method is that each calculation can only analyze

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  • Electric power system operation risk evaluation method based on random set theory
  • Electric power system operation risk evaluation method based on random set theory
  • Electric power system operation risk evaluation method based on random set theory

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Embodiment Construction

[0023] The embodiments will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0024] The risk assessment process of power system operation based on random set theory is as follows:

[0025] 1. Random set theory analysis

[0026] The random set in the present invention is a set-valued mapping from the basic event probability space to the power set of the measurable space, instead of a simple point-to-point mapping relationship. It combines traditional probability and set theory, and retains In addition to the advantages of probability theory in dealing with uncertain and imprecise information in a narrow sense, it extends the information to be processed from random point variables to random set variables.

[0027] Suppose N observations are denoted by a parameter u, u ∈ U, where each observation yields an inexact measurement given by the set A of values. call n i represents the set A i the number of occurrences of A i ∈U. Let P(U) be the set of...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of risk evaluation of an electric power system, and particularly relates to an electric power system operation risk evaluation method based on random set theory. The evaluation method comprises the steps of performing classification quantification on each influence factor according to collection of historical data of the electric power system and prediction of short-time system operating condition in the future, and expressing each variable in a random set form; performing sampling on random set focal elements of each variable by a Monte Carlo method so as to generate system operating states under influences of various kinds of uncertain factors; through section power flow calculation, judging whether branch power flow overload or node voltage out of limit exists or not, and performing correction on the system to eliminate branch power flow and voltage out of limit; and calculating element-level and system-level system operating risk indexes, outputting the system operating risk indexes and performing evaluation on the system short-time risk level. By virtue of the evaluation method, uncertain information in risk evaluation can be solved and processed, so as to comprehensively reflect influence of the uncertain factors on the risk indexes, and the specific probability distribution condition.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power system risk assessment, in particular to a power system operation risk assessment method based on random set theory. Background technique [0002] The fundamental task of the power system is to supply power to users as economically and reliably as possible. Safety, economy, quality and reliability are the fundamental requirements for the power system. However, the expansion and complexity of modern power systems and the development of the power market, especially in recent years, the frequent occurrence of blackouts at home and abroad have made the operational risk of power systems increasingly prominent. Therefore, it has become an urgent frontier topic to study advanced operational risk probability assessment theories, models and algorithms to realize dynamic identification of power system operational reliability and safety risk warning. [0003] In power system planning and operation, the N-1 re...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q50/06H02J3/00H02J2203/20Y02E40/70Y04S10/50
Inventor 梁剑摆存曦张爽刘宝柱侯赞李旭涛张汉花刘刚白涛
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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