Electric power system operation risk evaluation method based on random set theory

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of risk evaluation of an electric power system, and particularly relates to an electric power system operation risk evaluation method based on random set theory. The evaluation method comprises the steps of performing classification quantification on each influence factor according to collection of historical data of the electric power system and prediction of short-time system operating condition in the future, and expressing each variable in a random set form; performing sampling on random set focal elements of each variable by a Monte Carlo method so as to generate system operating states under influences of various kinds of uncertain factors; through section power flow calculation, judging whether branch power flow overload or node voltage out of limit exists or not, and performing correction on the system to eliminate branch power flow and voltage out of limit; and calculating element-level and system-level system operating risk indexes, outputting the system operating risk indexes and performing evaluation on the system short-time risk level. By virtue of the evaluation method, uncertain information in risk evaluation can be solved and processed, so as to comprehensively reflect influence of the uncertain factors on the risk indexes, and the specific probability distribution condition.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power system risk assessment, in particular to a power system operation risk assessment method based on random set theory. Background technique [0002] The fundamental task of the power system is to supply power to users as economically and reliably as possible. Safety, economy, quality and reliability are the fundamental requirements for the power system. However, the expansion and complexity of modern power systems and the development of the power market, especially in recent years, the frequent occurrence of blackouts at home and abroad have made the operational risk of power systems increasingly prominent. Therefore, it has become an urgent frontier topic to study advanced operational risk probability assessment theories, models and algorithms to realize dynamic identification of power system operational reliability and safety risk warning. [0003] In power system planning and operation, the N-1 re...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Some articles have proposed a sensitivity analysis method to investigate the influence of parameter uncertainty on reliability indicators. The disadvantage of this method is that each calculation can only analyze the influence of local parameter changes on reliability indicators.

However, the interval analysis method can only give an interval range of the index, and cannot reflect the probability distribution of the index.

Images