Power distribution network reliability analysis method

Abstract

The invention discloses a power distribution network reliability analysis method. The method comprises the following steps: a data acquisition step, a data cleaning step, a database construction step,a load prediction step, a physical index calculation step, a comprehensive physical index calculation step, a data model index calculation step and a weighted average step. The technical effects areas follows: the active and reactive power of the load is predicted by introducing a long-short-term memory method neural network to realize the short-term reliability evaluation effect, traditional statistical prediction based on a large amount of historical data is approached with short term data. Physical index calculation is carried out by using the predicted load and the grid line parameters.Indexes related to user node equipment health, distribution network topology and user node voltage drop are quickly obtained, and an average spectral radius change curve of all user node data of the power distribution network is calculated by utilizing the modeling capability of a big data random matrix and a circular ratio theorem to obtain a data model index which describes the influence of theoverall operation situation and load fluctuation of the system on the system operation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a distribution network reliability analysis method in the field of power network management. Background technique [0002] With the progress of social economy, the distribution network is becoming more and more complex, and the access of more types of equipment makes the reliability of the distribution network further increase the impact on the daily power supply of users. In 2015, the National Energy Administration released the "Action Plan for Construction and Transformation of Distribution Networks (2015-2020)", which established the action target of 99.99% power supply reliability in central cities and 99.88% in urban areas by 2020. [0003] The reliability of the distribution network is affected by various factors such as the topology of the network itself, the law of load on the user side, and the operating status of equipment. At present, the research on the reliability evaluation index of distribution network mainly in...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies of the prior art and provide a distribution network reliability evaluation method, which aims to make full use of the advantages of physical models and data model indicators, and solve the problems of calculation speed and oversimplified accuracy of traditional physical models , and the lack of details of the data model can avoid the problem of significant decline in calculation speed and accuracy as the scale of the distribution network increases

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